Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Glenavon vs Institute

Team pages: Glenavon · Institute

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

Glenavon2.27

Institute1.29

1X2

59% 21% 20%

Glenavon Draw Institute

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Glenavon 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Institute 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLWDWD

Head-to-head

Glenavon 3–3–0 Institute (6 last)

Glenavon2-0Institute
Glenavon2-2Institute
Institute1-4Glenavon
Glenavon3-1Institute
Glenavon3-3Institute
Glenavon3-3Institute

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Glenavon 1595 · Institute 1510

	Glenavon	Draw	Institute
Our model	59%	21%	20%
Market	59%	21%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Glenavon (rating 1595 vs 1510).
H2H favours Glenavon: 3-3-0.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Glenavon	Institute
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.1	2.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/17/33%	29/43/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7.5	2.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.5	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.87 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
14:39 +8’	1.53	4.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:11 +35’	1.49	4.11	4.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Glenavon 3–3–0 Institute

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/07/23 Club Friendly List	Glenavon	2-0 HT 1-0	Institute
11/01/20 Northern Ireland Premier	Glenavon	2-2 HT 0-1	Institute
14/12/19 Northern Ireland Premier	Institute	1-4 HT 0-3	Glenavon
26/11/19 Northern Ireland Premier	Glenavon	3-1 HT 3-0	Institute
29/12/18 Northern Ireland Premier	Glenavon	3-3 HT 2-0	Institute
01/12/18 Northern Ireland Premier	Glenavon	3-3 HT 2-2	Institute

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	15	10	4	1	37	16	34
2	Glenavon	13	8	3	2	34	16	27
3	Newington FC	13	8	2	3	29	22	26
4	Newry City	15	6	5	4	23	24	23
5	Institute	13	6	3	4	23	18	21
6	Ballinamallard Utd	15	6	3	6	20	20	21
7	Queens University	14	6	2	6	24	18	20
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
9	Ards FC	14	4	5	5	16	17	17
10	Loughgall	14	4	5	5	18	26	17
11	HW Welders	13	5	1	7	19	22	16
12	Rathfriland Rangers	14	5	1	8	15	25	16
13	Moyola Park	14	4	3	7	16	27	15
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	19	24	11
15	Strabane Athletic	15	2	5	8	13	25	11
16	Armagh City	14	1	6	7	12	22	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Glenavon	Institute
Queens University	4-2 W	1-4 L
HW Welders	4-0 W	0-0 D
Annagh United	1-1 D	0-5 L
Moyola Park	3-0 W	1-1 D
Newington FC	1-0 W	7-0 W
Rathfriland Rangers	3-1 W	2-0 W
Armagh City	2-2 D	5-3 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Glenavon (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Glenavon

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	3-1	4-2	10	1	W
16/10	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	4-0	7	5	W
10/10	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-1	5	9	D
03/10	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-0	–	–	W
25/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	4-1	5	8	W
19/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	2-3	12	3	L
28/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	3-1	6	5	W
22/08	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-2	–	–	D

Institute

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
16/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/10	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
03/10	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	7-0	–	–	W
26/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-5	8	7	L
19/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-3	–	–	W
05/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
29/08	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
22/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-4	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Glenavon vs Institute?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Glenavon win (59%). Probabilities: Glenavon 59%, draw 21%, Institute 20%.

How many goals are expected in Glenavon vs Institute?

The model expects 3.56 goals (Glenavon 2.27 · Institute 1.29), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Glenavon vs Institute?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.