Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Dundela vs Loughgall

Team pages: Dundela · Loughgall

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Dundela1.4

Loughgall1.8

1X2

29% 25% 46%

Dundela Draw Loughgall

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dundela 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWDDWLLL

Loughgall 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDLWLDWL

Head-to-head

Dundela 2–1–3 Loughgall (6 last)

Dundela0-3Loughgall
Loughgall2-1Dundela
Dundela2-2Loughgall
Dundela1-3Loughgall
Loughgall0-1Dundela
Loughgall0-1Dundela

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dundela 1427 · Loughgall 1498

	Dundela	Draw	Loughgall
Our model	29%	25%	46%
Market	29%	25%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Loughgall (rating 1427 vs 1498).
H2H favours Loughgall: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dundela	Loughgall
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	1.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/38/25%	29/29/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.5	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.60

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.12
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.00 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:37 +9’	3.10	3.60	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:12 +35’	3.12	3.35	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dundela 2–1–3 Loughgall

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/01/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Dundela	0-3 HT 0-2	Loughgall
29/11/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Loughgall	2-1	Dundela
23/08/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Dundela	2-2	Loughgall
15/04/23 Northern Ireland Championship	Dundela	1-3	Loughgall
21/01/23 Northern Ireland Championship	Loughgall	0-1	Dundela
12/11/22 Northern Ireland Championship	Loughgall	0-1 HT 0-1	Dundela

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	15	10	4	1	37	16	34
2	Glenavon	13	8	3	2	34	16	27
3	Newington FC	13	8	2	3	29	22	26
4	Newry City	15	6	5	4	23	24	23
5	Institute	13	6	3	4	23	18	21
6	Ballinamallard Utd	15	6	3	6	20	20	21
7	Queens University	14	6	2	6	24	18	20
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
9	Ards FC	14	4	5	5	16	17	17
10	Loughgall	14	4	5	5	18	26	17
11	HW Welders	13	5	1	7	19	22	16
12	Rathfriland Rangers	14	5	1	8	15	25	16
13	Moyola Park	14	4	3	7	16	27	15
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	19	24	11
15	Strabane Athletic	15	2	5	8	13	25	11
16	Armagh City	14	1	6	7	12	22	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dundela	Loughgall
Newry City	1-3 L	2-1 W
Queens University	0-2 L	0-1 L
Armagh City	2-0 W	0-0 D
Strabane Athletic	1-1 D	1-1 D
Glenavon	3-2 W	1-4 L
HW Welders	0-2 L	2-1 W
Ballinamallard Utd	1-2 L	1-6 L
Annagh United	2-2 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Dundela (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dundela

DLLWDDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
09/10	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	1-3	1-3	5	3	L
03/10	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
26/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
18/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
12/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-5	–	–	D
05/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	3-2	2	3	W
28/08	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
22/08	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	2-2	5	6	D

Loughgall

DLLDLWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-3	6	7	L
24/10	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
16/10	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/10	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	1-2	3	5	L
03/10	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-1	–	–	W
25/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-4	3	8	L
19/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
12/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-6	7	3	L
28/08	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	3-3	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dundela vs Loughgall?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Loughgall win (46%). Probabilities: Dundela 29%, draw 25%, Loughgall 46%.

How many goals are expected in Dundela vs Loughgall?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Dundela 1.4 · Loughgall 1.8), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Dundela vs Loughgall?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.