Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: HW Welders vs Ards FC

Team pages: HW Welders · Ards FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

HW Welders1.84

Ards FC1.19

1X2

52% 24% 24%

HW Welders Draw Ards FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

HW Welders 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLLDLL

Ards FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDLDWLDD

Head-to-head

HW Welders 4–2 Ards FC (6 last)

Ards FC2-3HW Welders
Ards FC1-4HW Welders
HW Welders1-2Ards FC
Ards FC2-5HW Welders
HW Welders0-1Ards FC
HW Welders4-0Ards FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HW Welders 1492 · Ards FC 1438

	HW Welders	Draw	Ards FC
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HW Welders (rating 1492 vs 1438).
H2H favours HW Welders: 4-0-2.
High corners: 13.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HW Welders	Ards FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2	0.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	38/25/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6	2.5 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.75

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.88 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.98
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
14:34 +13’	1.73	3.75	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:12 +34’	1.88	4.02	2.95
05:27 +46’	1.88▲	3.98▼	2.96▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HW Welders 4–0–2 Ards FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Ards FC	2-3	HW Welders
15/11/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Ards FC	1-4 HT 0-2	HW Welders
06/09/25 Northern Ireland Championship	HW Welders	1-2	Ards FC
05/04/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Ards FC	2-5 HT 1-2	HW Welders
15/03/25 Northern Ireland Championship	HW Welders	0-1 HT 0-0	Ards FC
30/11/24 Northern Ireland Championship	HW Welders	4-0	Ards FC

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	15	10	4	1	37	16	34
2	Glenavon	13	8	3	2	34	16	27
3	Newington FC	13	8	2	3	29	22	26
4	Newry City	15	6	5	4	23	24	23
5	Institute	13	6	3	4	23	18	21
6	Ballinamallard Utd	15	6	3	6	20	20	21
7	Queens University	14	6	2	6	24	18	20
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
9	Ards FC	14	4	5	5	16	17	17
10	Loughgall	14	4	5	5	18	26	17
11	HW Welders	13	5	1	7	19	22	16
12	Rathfriland Rangers	14	5	1	8	15	25	16
13	Moyola Park	14	4	3	7	16	27	15
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	19	24	11
15	Strabane Athletic	15	2	5	8	13	25	11
16	Armagh City	14	1	6	7	12	22	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HW Welders	Ards FC
Institute	0-0 D	0-2 L
Rathfriland Rangers	1-3 L	1-0 W
Newry City	2-3 L	1-1 D
Ballinamallard Utd	1-3 L	1-1 D
Annagh United	1-3 L	1-2 L
Moyola Park	4-1 W	0-0 D
Strabane Athletic	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ards FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HW Welders

WWWLLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
16/10	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-4	2	5	L
10/10	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
03/10	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	1-3	11	6	L
25/09	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	2-3	4	5	L
19/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-3	–	–	L
12/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-3	8	7	L
05/09	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	4-1	–	–	W
28/08	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-0	13	7	W
22/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-1	4	7	W

Ards FC

LLWDLDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
24/10	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
16/10	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	0-2	11	4	L
09/10	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-0	8	2	W
03/10	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
26/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
19/09	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-0	13	2	W
04/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-2	10	7	L
28/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	0-3	7	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HW Welders vs Ards FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HW Welders win (52%). Probabilities: HW Welders 52%, draw 24%, Ards FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in HW Welders vs Ards FC?

The model expects 3.03 goals (HW Welders 1.84 · Ards FC 1.19), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in HW Welders vs Ards FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.