Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Armagh City vs Newington FC

Team pages: Armagh City · Newington FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

Armagh City1.02

Newington FC2.39

1X2

14% 19% 67%

Armagh City Draw Newington FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Armagh City 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Newington FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Armagh City 1–2–3 Newington FC (6 last)

Armagh City1-2Newington FC
Newington FC5-1Armagh City
Armagh City2-4Newington FC
Armagh City3-3Newington FC
Newington FC2-3Armagh City
Newington FC0-0Armagh City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Armagh City 1428 · Newington FC 1536

	Armagh City	Draw	Newington FC
Our model	14%	19%	67%
Market	14%	18%	68%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newington FC (rating 1428 vs 1536).
H2H favours Newington FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Armagh City	Newington FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	2.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/50/38%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 4	3.2 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

16.25

X5.00

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.88

2 (-1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 6.25▼	Bet365 6.25
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.30 → 1.33▲	Pinn 1.46 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
14:27 +20’	7.00	5.00	1.30
04:41 +5’	6.25▼	5.00	1.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:22 +24’	4.85	4.37	1.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Armagh City 1–2–3 Newington FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Armagh City	1-2	Newington FC
18/10/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Newington FC	5-1 HT 2-1	Armagh City
16/09/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Armagh City	2-4	Newington FC
05/04/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Armagh City	3-3	Newington FC
15/02/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Newington FC	2-3	Armagh City
20/12/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Newington FC	0-0	Armagh City

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	15	10	4	1	37	16	34
2	Glenavon	13	8	3	2	34	16	27
3	Newington FC	13	8	2	3	29	22	26
4	Newry City	15	6	5	4	23	24	23
5	Institute	13	6	3	4	23	18	21
6	Ballinamallard Utd	15	6	3	6	20	20	21
7	Queens University	14	6	2	6	24	18	20
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
9	Ards FC	14	4	5	5	16	17	17
10	Loughgall	14	4	5	5	18	26	17
11	HW Welders	13	5	1	7	19	22	16
12	Rathfriland Rangers	14	5	1	8	15	25	16
13	Moyola Park	14	4	3	7	16	27	15
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	19	24	11
15	Strabane Athletic	15	2	5	8	13	25	11
16	Armagh City	14	1	6	7	12	22	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Armagh City	Newington FC
Ballinamallard Utd	1-0 W	4-0 W
Ards FC	1-1 D	0-2 L
Rathfriland Rangers	1-2 L	4-0 W
Strabane Athletic	0-0 D	2-1 W
Dundela	0-2 L	5-5 D
Institute	3-5 L	0-7 L
Newry City	2-2 D	2-0 W
Moyola Park	0-1 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Newington FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Armagh City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
24/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
17/10	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
09/10	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
02/10	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
26/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
19/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
12/09	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-5	–	–	L
04/09	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	2-2	3	7	D
28/08	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Newington FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
16/10	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	3-2	7	8	W
09/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	0-2	9	2	L
03/10	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-7	–	–	L
26/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	4-0	7	2	W
19/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-5	–	–	D
05/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
28/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	4-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Armagh City vs Newington FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Newington FC win (67%). Probabilities: Armagh City 14%, draw 19%, Newington FC 67%.

How many goals are expected in Armagh City vs Newington FC?

The model expects 3.41 goals (Armagh City 1.02 · Newington FC 2.39), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Armagh City vs Newington FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.