Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 06/11, 20:45

Prediction: Ballinamallard Utd vs Rathfriland Rangers

Team pages: Ballinamallard Utd · Rathfriland Rangers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Ballinamallard Utd1.76

Rathfriland Rangers1.02

1X2

54% 25% 21%

Ballinamallard Utd Draw Rathfriland Rangers

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Ballinamallard Utd 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWLDWDWL

Rathfriland Rangers 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLWWWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ballinamallard Utd 1512 · Rathfriland Rangers 1488

	Ballinamallard Utd	Draw	Rathfriland Rangers
Our model	54%	26%	21%
Market	54%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ballinamallard Utd	Rathfriland Rangers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/43/43%	50/0/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.6	1.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.70

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
10:48 +20’	1.65	3.70	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	14	9	4	1	36	16	31
2	Glenavon	13	8	3	2	34	16	27
3	Newington FC	13	8	2	3	29	22	26
4	Institute	13	6	3	4	23	18	21
5	Ballinamallard Utd	14	6	3	5	20	19	21
6	Queens University	14	6	2	6	24	18	20
7	Newry City	14	5	5	4	21	23	20
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
9	Ards FC	14	4	5	5	16	17	17
10	Loughgall	14	4	5	5	18	26	17
11	HW Welders	13	5	1	7	19	22	16
12	Moyola Park	13	4	3	6	15	25	15
13	Rathfriland Rangers	13	4	1	8	14	25	13
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	19	24	11
15	Strabane Athletic	14	2	5	7	13	24	11
16	Armagh City	14	1	6	7	12	22	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ballinamallard Utd	Rathfriland Rangers
Armagh City	0-1 L	2-1 W
Strabane Athletic	1-0 W	2-2 D
Warrenpoint Town	2-2 D	0-2 L
Queens University	1-0 W	1-0 W
Ards FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Newington FC	0-4 L	0-4 L
HW Welders	3-1 W	3-1 W
Glenavon	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Ballinamallard Utd (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ballinamallard Utd

LWDWLDWDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
23/10	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
17/10	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
10/10	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
03/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
26/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-4	3	2	L
19/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	6-1	5	3	W
29/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-3	–	–	L

Rathfriland Rangers

LLLLWLWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-2	14	4	D
17/10	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
09/10	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-1	4	8	W
03/10	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
25/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-2	–	–	L
19/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
05/09	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
28/08	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	1-3	3	5	L
22/08	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-4	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ballinamallard Utd vs Rathfriland Rangers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ballinamallard Utd win (54%). Probabilities: Ballinamallard Utd 54%, draw 25%, Rathfriland Rangers 21%.

How many goals are expected in Ballinamallard Utd vs Rathfriland Rangers?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Ballinamallard Utd 1.76 · Rathfriland Rangers 1.02), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ballinamallard Utd vs Rathfriland Rangers?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.