Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 13/11, 20:45

Prediction: Loughgall vs Glenavon

Team pages: Loughgall · Glenavon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

Loughgall1.2

Glenavon2.16

1X2

20% 22% 58%

Loughgall Draw Glenavon

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Loughgall 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLWLDWLW

Glenavon 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Loughgall 3–1–2 Glenavon (6 last)

Glenavon4-1Loughgall
Glenavon0-1Loughgall
Loughgall0-2Glenavon
Loughgall3-0Glenavon
Glenavon2-2Loughgall
Loughgall3-1Glenavon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Loughgall 1502 · Glenavon 1601

	Loughgall	Draw	Glenavon
Our model	20%	22%	58%
Market	20%	21%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Glenavon (rating 1502 vs 1601).
H2H favours Loughgall: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Loughgall	Glenavon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	2.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/14/43%	43/29/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	3.2 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.20

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.88

2 (-1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:53 +9’	4.50	4.20	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Loughgall 3–1–2 Glenavon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/09/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Glenavon	4-1 HT 0-1	Loughgall
05/04/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Glenavon	0-1 HT 0-0	Loughgall
04/03/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Loughgall	0-2 HT 0-2	Glenavon
02/11/24 Northern Ireland Premier	Loughgall	3-0 HT 2-0	Glenavon
07/09/24 Northern Ireland Premier	Glenavon	2-2 HT 0-0	Loughgall
13/04/24 Northern Ireland Premier	Loughgall	3-1 HT 2-0	Glenavon

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	15	10	4	1	37	16	34
2	Glenavon	14	9	3	2	36	16	30
3	Newington FC	14	9	2	3	35	22	29
4	Queens University	15	7	2	6	28	19	23
5	Newry City	15	6	5	4	23	24	23
6	Institute	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
7	Ballinamallard Utd	15	6	3	6	20	20	21
8	Loughgall	15	5	5	5	21	26	20
9	HW Welders	14	6	1	7	22	22	19
10	Warrenpoint Town	13	5	3	5	22	21	18
11	Ards FC	15	4	5	6	16	20	17
12	Rathfriland Rangers	14	5	1	8	15	25	16
13	Moyola Park	14	4	3	7	16	27	15
14	Dundela	13	2	5	6	19	27	11
15	Strabane Athletic	15	2	5	8	13	25	11
16	Armagh City	15	1	6	8	12	28	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Loughgall	Glenavon
Dundela	3-0 W	2-3 L
Annagh United	0-3 L	1-1 D
HW Welders	2-1 W	4-0 W
Moyola Park	1-2 L	3-0 W
Queens University	0-1 L	4-2 W
Ballinamallard Utd	1-6 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Glenavon (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Loughgall

LLDLWLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
31/10	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-3	6	7	L
24/10	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
16/10	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/10	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	1-2	3	5	L
03/10	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-1	–	–	W
25/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-4	3	8	L
19/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
12/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-6	7	3	L

Glenavon

WLDWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
31/10	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	3-1	4-2	10	1	W
16/10	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	4-0	7	5	W
10/10	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-1	5	9	D
03/10	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-0	–	–	W
25/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	4-1	5	8	W
19/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	2-3	12	3	L
28/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	3-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Loughgall vs Glenavon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Glenavon win (58%). Probabilities: Loughgall 20%, draw 22%, Glenavon 58%.

How many goals are expected in Loughgall vs Glenavon?

The model expects 3.37 goals (Loughgall 1.2 · Glenavon 2.16), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Loughgall vs Glenavon?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.