Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 13/11, 20:45

Prediction: Annagh United vs Ballinamallard Utd

Team pages: Annagh United · Ballinamallard Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Annagh United1.89

Ballinamallard Utd0.92

1X2

60% 23% 18%

Annagh United Draw Ballinamallard Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Annagh United 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWDDWWWW

Ballinamallard Utd 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWDWLL

Head-to-head

Annagh United 3–2–1 Ballinamallard Utd (6 last)

Ballinamallard Utd1-3Annagh United
Ballinamallard Utd0-0Annagh United
Annagh United0-1Ballinamallard Utd
Ballinamallard Utd1-1Annagh United
Annagh United1-0Ballinamallard Utd
Ballinamallard Utd0-3Annagh United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Annagh United 1581 · Ballinamallard Utd 1497

	Annagh United	Draw	Ballinamallard Utd
Our model	59%	24%	17%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Annagh United (rating 1581 vs 1497).
H2H favours Annagh United: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Annagh United	Ballinamallard Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.7	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	13/50/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.4	2.6 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.10

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:26 +36’	1.50	4.10	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Annagh United 3–2–1 Ballinamallard Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Ballinamallard Utd	1-3	Annagh United
21/02/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Ballinamallard Utd	0-0	Annagh United
26/12/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Annagh United	0-1	Ballinamallard Utd
13/09/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Ballinamallard Utd	1-1	Annagh United
15/03/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Annagh United	1-0 HT 0-0	Ballinamallard Utd
14/12/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Ballinamallard Utd	0-3	Annagh United

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	15	10	4	1	37	16	34
2	Glenavon	14	9	3	2	36	16	30
3	Newington FC	14	9	2	3	35	22	29
4	Queens University	15	7	2	6	28	19	23
5	Newry City	15	6	5	4	23	24	23
6	Institute	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
7	Ballinamallard Utd	15	6	3	6	20	20	21
8	Loughgall	15	5	5	5	21	26	20
9	HW Welders	14	6	1	7	22	22	19
10	Warrenpoint Town	13	5	3	5	22	21	18
11	Ards FC	15	4	5	6	16	20	17
12	Rathfriland Rangers	14	5	1	8	15	25	16
13	Moyola Park	14	4	3	7	16	27	15
14	Dundela	13	2	5	6	19	27	11
15	Strabane Athletic	15	2	5	8	13	25	11
16	Armagh City	15	1	6	8	12	28	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Annagh United	Ballinamallard Utd
Strabane Athletic	1-0 W	1-0 W
Loughgall	3-0 W	6-1 W
Queens University	5-1 W	1-0 W
Armagh City	3-1 W	0-1 L
Glenavon	1-1 D	1-1 D
Warrenpoint Town	1-1 D	2-2 D
HW Welders	3-1 W	3-1 W
Ards FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Annagh United (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Annagh United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
31/10	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-0	4	7	W
24/10	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	5-1	7	0	W
17/10	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-1	9	2	W
10/10	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-1	3	9	D
03/10	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
26/09	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	5-0	7	7	W
18/09	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
12/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	3-1	6	7	W
04/09	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-1	4	7	W

Ballinamallard Utd

WDWLDWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
31/10	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
23/10	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
17/10	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
10/10	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
03/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
26/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-4	3	2	L
19/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	6-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Annagh United vs Ballinamallard Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Annagh United win (60%). Probabilities: Annagh United 60%, draw 23%, Ballinamallard Utd 18%.

How many goals are expected in Annagh United vs Ballinamallard Utd?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Annagh United 1.89 · Ballinamallard Utd 0.92), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Annagh United vs Ballinamallard Utd?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.