Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 13/11, 20:45

Prediction: Institute vs Armagh City

Team pages: Institute · Armagh City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Institute2.53

Armagh City1.11

1X2

67% 19% 14%

Institute Draw Armagh City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Institute 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWDWDL

Armagh City 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLDLLDWL

Head-to-head

Institute 6–0 Armagh City (6 last)

Armagh City3-5Institute
Armagh City1-4Institute
Institute6-0Armagh City
Institute2-1Armagh City
Armagh City1-3Institute
Institute4-3Armagh City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Institute 1527 · Armagh City 1401

	Institute	Draw	Armagh City
Our model	67%	19%	14%
Market	67%	19%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Institute (rating 1527 vs 1401).
H2H favours Institute: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Institute	Armagh City
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	0.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/43/29%	13/38/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.8	1.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:55 +7’	1.33	4.75	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Institute 6–0–0 Armagh City

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
12/09/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Armagh City	3-5	Institute
25/04/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Armagh City	1-4	Institute
28/02/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Institute	6-0	Armagh City
01/11/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Institute	2-1 HT 0-1	Armagh City
23/08/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Armagh City	1-3	Institute
19/04/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Institute	4-3 HT 4-1	Armagh City

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	15	10	4	1	37	16	34
2	Glenavon	14	9	3	2	36	16	30
3	Newington FC	14	9	2	3	35	22	29
4	Queens University	15	7	2	6	28	19	23
5	Newry City	15	6	5	4	23	24	23
6	Institute	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
7	Ballinamallard Utd	15	6	3	6	20	20	21
8	Loughgall	15	5	5	5	21	26	20
9	HW Welders	14	6	1	7	22	22	19
10	Warrenpoint Town	13	5	3	5	22	21	18
11	Ards FC	15	4	5	6	16	20	17
12	Rathfriland Rangers	14	5	1	8	15	25	16
13	Moyola Park	14	4	3	7	16	27	15
14	Dundela	13	2	5	6	19	27	11
15	Strabane Athletic	15	2	5	8	13	25	11
16	Armagh City	15	1	6	8	12	28	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Institute	Armagh City
Ards FC	2-0 W	1-1 D
Newington FC	7-0 W	0-6 L
Annagh United	0-5 L	1-3 L
Rathfriland Rangers	2-0 W	1-2 L
Newry City	1-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Institute (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Institute

LWWWLWDWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
31/10	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
16/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/10	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
03/10	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	7-0	–	–	W
26/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-5	8	7	L
19/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-3	–	–	W
05/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
29/08	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-3	1	3	L

Armagh City

DLDLDLLDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-4	0-6	4	4	L
31/10	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
24/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
17/10	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
09/10	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
02/10	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
26/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
19/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
12/09	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-5	–	–	L
04/09	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	2-2	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Institute vs Armagh City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Institute win (67%). Probabilities: Institute 67%, draw 19%, Armagh City 14%.

How many goals are expected in Institute vs Armagh City?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Institute 2.53 · Armagh City 1.11), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Institute vs Armagh City?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.