Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 13/11, 20:45

Prediction: Ards FC vs Moyola Park

Team pages: Ards FC · Moyola Park

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Ards FC1.6

Moyola Park1.05

1X2

49% 26% 24%

Ards FC Draw Moyola Park

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ards FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLDWLDDL

Moyola Park 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLWLDL

Head-to-head

Ards FC 1–1–0 Moyola Park (2 last)

Moyola Park0-0Ards FC
Moyola Park1-3Ards FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ards FC 1459 · Moyola Park 1482

	Ards FC	Draw	Moyola Park
Our model	49%	27%	24%
Market	50%	25%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ards FC	Moyola Park
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.1	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/25/38%	33/50/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 7.6	2.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:57 +6’	1.80	3.60	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ards FC 1–1–0 Moyola Park

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Moyola Park	0-0	Ards FC
01/02/25 Northern Ireland Cup	Moyola Park	1-3 HT 1-1	Ards FC

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	15	10	4	1	37	16	34
2	Glenavon	14	9	3	2	36	16	30
3	Newington FC	14	9	2	3	35	22	29
4	Queens University	15	7	2	6	28	19	23
5	Newry City	15	6	5	4	23	24	23
6	Institute	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
7	Ballinamallard Utd	15	6	3	6	20	20	21
8	Loughgall	15	5	5	5	21	26	20
9	HW Welders	14	6	1	7	22	22	19
10	Warrenpoint Town	13	5	3	5	22	21	18
11	Ards FC	15	4	5	6	16	20	17
12	Rathfriland Rangers	14	5	1	8	15	25	16
13	Moyola Park	14	4	3	7	16	27	15
14	Dundela	13	2	5	6	19	27	11
15	Strabane Athletic	15	2	5	8	13	25	11
16	Armagh City	15	1	6	8	12	28	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ards FC	Moyola Park
HW Welders	0-3 L	1-4 L
Newry City	1-1 D	1-2 L
Armagh City	1-1 D	1-0 W
Institute	0-2 L	1-1 D
Newington FC	2-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ards FC

LWDLDWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
31/10	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
24/10	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
16/10	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	0-2	11	4	L
09/10	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-0	8	2	W
03/10	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
26/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
19/09	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-0	13	2	W
04/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-2	10	7	L

Moyola Park

WLLDWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
31/10	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
16/10	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-3	3	8	L
10/10	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
03/10	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-3	–	–	L
26/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
19/09	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-6	–	–	L
05/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-4	–	–	L
28/08	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ards FC vs Moyola Park?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ards FC win (49%). Probabilities: Ards FC 49%, draw 26%, Moyola Park 24%.

How many goals are expected in Ards FC vs Moyola Park?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Ards FC 1.6 · Moyola Park 1.05), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ards FC vs Moyola Park?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.