Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 11/08, 20:45
Prediction: Ards FC vs Dundela
Team pages: Dundela
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Ards FC1.83
Dundela0.8
1X2
Ards FC
Draw
Dundela
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Ards FC
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Dundela
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ards FC
2–1–3
Dundela
(6 last)
- Ards FC0-1Dundela
- Dundela1-1Ards FC
- Dundela1-4Ards FC
- Ards FC1-0Dundela
- Dundela1-0Ards FC
- Ards FC1-3Dundela
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ards FC 1533 · Dundela 1467
| Ards FC | Draw | Dundela | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| Market | 62% | 23% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ards FC (rating 1533 vs 1467).
- H2H favours Dundela: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ards FC | Dundela | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/0/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.4 | 3.3 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0.2 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ards FC 2–1–3 Dundela
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Northern Ireland Championship | Ards FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Dundela |
| 14/03/26 Northern Ireland Championship | Dundela | 1-1 | Ards FC |
| 20/12/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Dundela | 1-4 | Ards FC |
| 29/08/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Ards FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Dundela |
| 19/04/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Dundela | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Ards FC |
| 31/12/24 Northern Ireland Championship | Ards FC | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Dundela |
Standings · Northern Ireland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newington FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | HW Welders | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ards FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Loughgall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Institute | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Newry City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Dundela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Moyola Park | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Armagh City | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Queens University | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Ballinamallard Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | Strabane Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Glenavon | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Rathfriland Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Annagh United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | Warrenpoint Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ards FC | Dundela |
|---|---|---|
| Bangor FC | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Warrenpoint Town | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Institute | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Armagh City | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Ballinamallard Utd | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Dundela (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ards FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Carrick Rangers UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 16/07 | Bangor FC UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/04 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Institute Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/04 | Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | Dundela Northern Ireland Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/03 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 14/03 | Dundela Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Dundela
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 01/08 | Crusaders UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Bangor FC UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 27/06 | Stranraer Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Institute Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/03 | Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ards FC vs Dundela?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ards FC win (61%). Probabilities: Ards FC 61%, draw 24%, Dundela 15%.
How many goals are expected in Ards FC vs Dundela?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Ards FC 1.83 · Dundela 0.8), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ards FC vs Dundela?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.