Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Loughgall vs Moyola Park

Team pages: Loughgall · Moyola Park

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Loughgall2.13

Moyola Park0.98

1X2

63% 22% 15%

Loughgall Draw Moyola Park

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Loughgall 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWDLLDLW

Moyola Park 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLLDWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Loughgall 1495 · Moyola Park 1465

	Loughgall	Draw	Moyola Park
Our model	63%	22%	15%
Market	63%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Loughgall	Moyola Park
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/57/29%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.3	1.2 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 1	5.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.20

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:32 +3’	1.42	4.20	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	10	6	3	1	24	13	21
2	Glenavon	10	6	2	2	25	13	20
3	Newington FC	10	6	2	2	24	18	20
4	Queens University	10	6	1	3	20	7	19
5	Institute	10	5	1	4	20	17	16
6	HW Welders	10	5	0	5	18	16	15
7	Newry City	10	4	3	3	16	18	15
8	Warrenpoint Town	10	4	2	4	18	15	14
9	Ballinamallard Utd	10	4	2	4	16	16	14
10	Loughgall	10	3	4	3	14	19	13
11	Ards FC	10	3	3	4	12	13	12
12	Dundela	10	2	5	3	18	20	11
13	Moyola Park	10	3	2	5	10	20	11
14	Strabane Athletic	10	2	3	5	10	19	9
15	Rathfriland Rangers	10	2	0	8	9	22	6
16	Armagh City	10	0	5	5	8	16	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Loughgall	Moyola Park
Glenavon	1-4 L	0-3 L
Armagh City	0-0 D	1-0 W
Queens University	0-1 L	1-0 W
Ballinamallard Utd	1-6 L	2-0 W
Warrenpoint Town	3-3 D	2-6 L
Ards FC	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Moyola Park (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Loughgall

WDDWDLLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-1	–	–	W
25/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-4	3	8	L
19/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
12/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-6	7	3	L
28/08	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	3-3	3	2	D
22/08	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
15/08	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
11/08	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	2-2	1	8	D
08/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W

Moyola Park

DLWLWLLDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-3	–	–	L
26/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
19/09	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-6	–	–	L
05/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-4	–	–	L
28/08	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
15/08	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	1-3	0	8	L
08/08	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	2-2	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Loughgall vs Moyola Park?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Loughgall win (63%). Probabilities: Loughgall 63%, draw 22%, Moyola Park 15%.

How many goals are expected in Loughgall vs Moyola Park?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Loughgall 2.13 · Moyola Park 0.98), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Loughgall vs Moyola Park?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.