Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Institute vs HW Welders

Team pages: Institute · HW Welders

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Institute1.57

HW Welders2.08

1X2

28% 23% 48%

Institute Draw HW Welders

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Institute 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWWWLW

HW Welders 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Institute 1–1–4 HW Welders (6 last)

HW Welders1-4Institute
Institute0-4HW Welders
HW Welders2-1Institute
Institute1-1HW Welders
HW Welders3-1Institute
Institute1-3HW Welders

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Institute 1522 · HW Welders 1485

	Institute	Draw	HW Welders
Our model	28%	23%	49%
Market	28%	24%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours HW Welders: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Institute	HW Welders
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/50/33%	43/14/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	4.3 / 7.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.5	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.70

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:26 +7’	3.20	3.70	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Institute 1–1–4 HW Welders

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Northern Ireland Championship	HW Welders	1-4	Institute
13/12/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Institute	0-4 HT 0-3	HW Welders
04/10/25 Northern Ireland Championship	HW Welders	2-1 HT 2-0	Institute
11/02/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Institute	1-1 HT 0-0	HW Welders
09/11/24 Northern Ireland Championship	HW Welders	3-1	Institute
24/08/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Institute	1-3	HW Welders

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	10	6	3	1	24	13	21
2	Glenavon	10	6	2	2	25	13	20
3	Newington FC	10	6	2	2	24	18	20
4	Queens University	10	6	1	3	20	7	19
5	Institute	10	5	1	4	20	17	16
6	HW Welders	10	5	0	5	18	16	15
7	Newry City	10	4	3	3	16	18	15
8	Warrenpoint Town	10	4	2	4	18	15	14
9	Ballinamallard Utd	10	4	2	4	16	16	14
10	Loughgall	10	3	4	3	14	19	13
11	Ards FC	10	3	3	4	12	13	12
12	Dundela	10	2	5	3	18	20	11
13	Moyola Park	10	3	2	5	10	20	11
14	Strabane Athletic	10	2	3	5	10	19	9
15	Rathfriland Rangers	10	2	0	8	9	22	6
16	Armagh City	10	0	5	5	8	16	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Institute	HW Welders
Annagh United	0-5 L	1-3 L
Warrenpoint Town	2-0 W	3-0 W
Armagh City	5-3 W	1-0 W
Rathfriland Rangers	2-0 W	1-3 L
Newry City	1-3 L	2-3 L
Queens University	1-4 L	1-2 L
Ballinamallard Utd	1-2 L	1-3 L
Strabane Athletic	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: HW Welders (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Institute

WLDLLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	7-0	–	–	W
26/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-5	8	7	L
19/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-3	–	–	W
05/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
29/08	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
22/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-4	3	4	L
15/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
11/08	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-2	2	6	L
07/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W

HW Welders

WLWWWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	1-3	11	6	L
25/09	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	2-3	4	5	L
19/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-3	–	–	L
12/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-3	8	7	L
05/09	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	4-1	–	–	W
28/08	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-0	13	7	W
22/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
15/08	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	1-2	11	1	L
08/08	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-0	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Institute vs HW Welders?

According to our model, the most likely result is an HW Welders win (48%). Probabilities: Institute 28%, draw 23%, HW Welders 48%.

How many goals are expected in Institute vs HW Welders?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Institute 1.57 · HW Welders 2.08), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Institute vs HW Welders?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.