Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 09/10, 20:45

Prediction: Rathfriland Rangers vs Armagh City

Team pages: Armagh City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Rathfriland Rangers1.66

Armagh City1.05

1X2

51% 25% 24%

Rathfriland Rangers Draw Armagh City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Rathfriland Rangers 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWLW

Armagh City 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDLDLD

Head-to-head

Rathfriland Rangers 0–1 Armagh City (1 last)

Armagh City1-0Rathfriland Rangers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rathfriland Rangers 1435 · Armagh City 1441

	Rathfriland Rangers	Draw	Armagh City
Our model	50%	27%	23%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rathfriland Rangers	Armagh City
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.6	0 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/0/80%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 3	1.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.70

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +7’	1.73	3.70	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rathfriland Rangers 0–0–1 Armagh City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/10/23 Northern Ireland Premier Intermediate League	Armagh City	1-0 HT 0-0	Rathfriland Rangers

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Newington FC	9	6	2	1	24	11	20
2	Annagh United	9	6	2	1	23	12	20
3	Glenavon	9	5	2	2	22	13	17
4	Queens University	9	5	1	3	18	7	16
5	HW Welders	9	5	0	4	17	13	15
6	Newry City	9	4	3	2	15	16	15
7	Warrenpoint Town	9	4	1	4	17	14	13
8	Ballinamallard Utd	9	4	1	4	15	15	13
9	Institute	9	4	1	4	13	17	13
10	Dundela	9	2	5	2	18	18	11
11	Ards FC	9	3	2	4	11	12	11
12	Moyola Park	9	3	2	4	10	17	11
13	Loughgall	9	2	4	3	12	18	10
14	Strabane Athletic	10	2	3	5	10	19	9
15	Armagh City	10	0	5	5	8	16	5
16	Rathfriland Rangers	9	1	0	8	6	21	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rathfriland Rangers	Armagh City
HW Welders	3-1 W	0-1 L
Warrenpoint Town	0-2 L	0-2 L
Queens University	1-0 W	1-1 D
Institute	0-2 L	3-5 L
Glenavon	1-3 L	2-2 D
Newry City	1-2 L	2-2 D
Loughgall	1-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	0 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Armagh City (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rathfriland Rangers

LLLLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
25/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-2	–	–	L
19/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
05/09	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
28/08	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	1-3	3	5	L
22/08	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-4	2	4	L
15/08	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-4	–	–	L
08/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-3	–	–	L

Armagh City

DLLDLDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
26/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
19/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
12/09	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-5	–	–	L
04/09	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	2-2	3	7	D
28/08	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
22/08	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/08	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-2	–	–	L
08/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rathfriland Rangers vs Armagh City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rathfriland Rangers win (51%). Probabilities: Rathfriland Rangers 51%, draw 25%, Armagh City 24%.

How many goals are expected in Rathfriland Rangers vs Armagh City?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Rathfriland Rangers 1.66 · Armagh City 1.05), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Rathfriland Rangers vs Armagh City?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.