Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Warrenpoint Town vs Strabane Athletic

Team pages: Warrenpoint Town · Strabane Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Warrenpoint Town1.88

Strabane Athletic1.05

1X2

56% 24% 20%

Warrenpoint Town Draw Strabane Athletic

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Warrenpoint Town 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLWLWD

Strabane Athletic 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLDDWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warrenpoint Town 1509 · Strabane Athletic 1461

	Warrenpoint Town	Draw	Strabane Athletic
Our model	56%	24%	20%
Market	56%	24%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warrenpoint Town (rating 1509 vs 1461).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warrenpoint Town	Strabane Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	14/57/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	1.6 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.70

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:47 +8’	1.61	3.70	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	10	6	3	1	24	13	21
2	Glenavon	10	6	2	2	25	13	20
3	Newington FC	10	6	2	2	24	18	20
4	Queens University	10	6	1	3	20	7	19
5	Institute	10	5	1	4	20	17	16
6	HW Welders	10	5	0	5	18	16	15
7	Newry City	10	4	3	3	16	18	15
8	Warrenpoint Town	10	4	2	4	18	15	14
9	Ballinamallard Utd	10	4	2	4	16	16	14
10	Loughgall	10	3	4	3	14	19	13
11	Ards FC	10	3	3	4	12	13	12
12	Dundela	10	2	5	3	18	20	11
13	Moyola Park	10	3	2	5	10	20	11
14	Strabane Athletic	10	2	3	5	10	19	9
15	Rathfriland Rangers	10	2	0	8	9	22	6
16	Armagh City	10	0	5	5	8	16	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warrenpoint Town	Strabane Athletic
Institute	0-2 L	0-1 L
Moyola Park	6-2 W	3-1 W
Newington FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Newry City	3-0 W	2-2 D
Ards FC	1-3 L	1-0 W
Armagh City	2-0 W	0-0 D
HW Welders	0-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warrenpoint Town

LWLWDLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
25/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	6-2	–	–	W
05/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
28/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	3-3	5	2	D
21/08	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
15/08	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-3	–	–	L
11/08	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-3	5	3	L

Strabane Athletic

LWLLLLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
26/09	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
18/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
11/09	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	2-2	2-2	7	4	D
05/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-6	–	–	L
28/08	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
22/08	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
15/08	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-4	–	–	L
11/08	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	3-1	2	8	W
07/08	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warrenpoint Town vs Strabane Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Warrenpoint Town win (56%). Probabilities: Warrenpoint Town 56%, draw 24%, Strabane Athletic 20%.

How many goals are expected in Warrenpoint Town vs Strabane Athletic?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Warrenpoint Town 1.88 · Strabane Athletic 1.05), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Warrenpoint Town vs Strabane Athletic?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.