Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 16/10, 20:45

Prediction: Moyola Park vs Newington FC

Team pages: Moyola Park · Newington FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Moyola Park1.28

Newington FC2.06

1X2

22% 23% 54%

Moyola Park Draw Newington FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Moyola Park 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLDWLW

Newington FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDLWLL

Head-to-head

Moyola Park 1–0 Newington FC (1 last)

Moyola Park5-2Newington FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moyola Park 1481 · Newington FC 1513

	Moyola Park	Draw	Newington FC
Our model	22%	23%	54%
Market	22%	23%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moyola Park	Newington FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	67/17/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.8	3.2 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0	3.2 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.90

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:53 +16’	4.00	3.90	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Moyola Park 1–0–0 Newington FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/03/18 Northern Ireland Premier Intermediate League	Moyola Park	5-2 HT 2-0	Newington FC

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	11	6	4	1	25	14	22
2	Glenavon	11	6	3	2	26	14	21
3	Newington FC	11	6	2	3	24	20	20
4	Queens University	11	6	1	4	20	8	19
5	Newry City	11	5	3	3	19	19	18
6	Warrenpoint Town	11	5	2	4	19	15	17
7	Institute	11	5	2	4	20	17	17
8	Ballinamallard Utd	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
9	HW Welders	11	5	1	5	18	16	16
10	Ards FC	11	4	3	4	14	13	15
11	Moyola Park	11	4	2	5	12	21	14
12	Loughgall	11	3	4	4	15	21	13
13	Dundela	11	2	5	4	19	23	11
14	Strabane Athletic	11	2	3	6	10	20	9
15	Rathfriland Rangers	11	3	0	8	11	23	9
16	Armagh City	11	0	5	6	9	18	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moyola Park	Newington FC
Loughgall	2-1 W	2-2 D
Glenavon	0-3 L	0-1 L
Queens University	1-0 W	2-1 W
Ards FC	0-0 D	0-2 L
Warrenpoint Town	2-6 L	1-0 W
Ballinamallard Utd	2-0 W	4-0 W
Strabane Athletic	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Newington FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Moyola Park

LWLWLLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
03/10	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-3	–	–	L
26/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
19/09	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-6	–	–	L
05/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-4	–	–	L
28/08	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
15/08	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	1-3	0	8	L

Newington FC

DWWWWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	0-2	9	2	L
03/10	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-7	–	–	L
26/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	4-0	7	2	W
19/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-5	–	–	D
05/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
28/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
15/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-1	10	3	W
11/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	2-2	6	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moyola Park vs Newington FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Newington FC win (54%). Probabilities: Moyola Park 22%, draw 23%, Newington FC 54%.

How many goals are expected in Moyola Park vs Newington FC?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Moyola Park 1.28 · Newington FC 2.06), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Moyola Park vs Newington FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.