Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 16/10, 20:45

Prediction: Glenavon vs HW Welders

Team pages: Glenavon · HW Welders

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Glenavon1.76

HW Welders1.61

1X2

41% 25% 34%

Glenavon Draw HW Welders

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Glenavon 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWLDWWWD

HW Welders 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLLLLD

Head-to-head

Glenavon 3–3 HW Welders (6 last)

HW Welders3-0Glenavon
Glenavon1-4HW Welders
Glenavon0-1HW Welders
HW Welders1-2Glenavon
HW Welders1-3Glenavon
Glenavon4-2HW Welders

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Glenavon 1572 · HW Welders 1484

	Glenavon	Draw	HW Welders
Our model	41%	25%	35%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Glenavon (rating 1572 vs 1484).
High corners: 14.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Glenavon	HW Welders
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	29/29/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 7	4.1 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.8	5.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:30 +39’	2.20	3.60	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Glenavon 3–0–3 HW Welders

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/25 UK Friendlies	HW Welders	3-0 HT 2-0	Glenavon
03/08/24 Club Friendly List	Glenavon	1-4 HT 1-1	HW Welders
04/02/23 Northern Ireland Cup	Glenavon	0-1 HT 0-0	HW Welders
27/07/22 Club Friendly List	HW Welders	1-2 HT 0-2	Glenavon
24/07/18 Club Friendly List	HW Welders	1-3 HT 0-2	Glenavon
12/10/16 Northern Ireland League Cup	Glenavon	4-2 HT 1-1	HW Welders

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	11	6	4	1	25	14	22
2	Glenavon	11	6	3	2	26	14	21
3	Newington FC	11	6	2	3	24	20	20
4	Queens University	11	6	1	4	20	8	19
5	Newry City	11	5	3	3	19	19	18
6	Warrenpoint Town	11	5	2	4	19	15	17
7	Institute	11	5	2	4	20	17	17
8	Ballinamallard Utd	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
9	HW Welders	11	5	1	5	18	16	16
10	Ards FC	11	4	3	4	14	13	15
11	Moyola Park	11	4	2	5	12	21	14
12	Loughgall	11	3	4	4	15	21	13
13	Dundela	11	2	5	4	19	23	11
14	Strabane Athletic	11	2	3	6	10	20	9
15	Rathfriland Rangers	11	3	0	8	11	23	9
16	Armagh City	11	0	5	6	9	18	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Glenavon	HW Welders
Annagh United	1-1 D	1-3 L
Moyola Park	3-0 W	4-1 W
Ballinamallard Utd	1-1 D	1-3 L
Dundela	2-3 L	2-0 W
Rathfriland Rangers	3-1 W	1-3 L
Armagh City	2-2 D	1-0 W
Strabane Athletic	4-1 W	2-1 W
Newry City	4-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Glenavon (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Glenavon

WWDWLDWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-1	5	9	D
03/10	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-0	–	–	W
25/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	4-1	5	8	W
19/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	2-3	12	3	L
28/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	3-1	6	5	W
22/08	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	–	4-1	–	–	W
11/08	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	–	4-1	–	–	W

HW Welders

LWWWWLLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
03/10	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	1-3	11	6	L
25/09	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	2-3	4	5	L
19/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-3	–	–	L
12/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-3	8	7	L
05/09	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	4-1	–	–	W
28/08	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-0	13	7	W
22/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
15/08	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	1-2	11	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Glenavon vs HW Welders?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Glenavon win (41%). Probabilities: Glenavon 41%, draw 25%, HW Welders 34%.

How many goals are expected in Glenavon vs HW Welders?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Glenavon 1.76 · HW Welders 1.61), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Glenavon vs HW Welders?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.