Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 09/10, 20:45

Prediction: Newington FC vs Ards FC

Team pages: Newington FC · Ards FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Newington FC2.05

Ards FC1.34

1X2

53% 24% 24%

Newington FC Draw Ards FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Newington FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDLWL

Ards FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLWDLD

Head-to-head

Newington FC 1–2–3 Ards FC (6 last)

Ards FC2-1Newington FC
Newington FC2-0Ards FC
Newington FC0-3Ards FC
Ards FC1-1Newington FC
Newington FC2-2Ards FC
Ards FC3-2Newington FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newington FC 1553 · Ards FC 1494

	Newington FC	Draw	Ards FC
Our model	53%	23%	24%
Market	53%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newington FC (rating 1553 vs 1494).
H2H favours Ards FC: 3-2-1.
High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newington FC	Ards FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	2.2 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	29/57/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6	2.6 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.8	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.75

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +6’	1.70	3.75	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newington FC 1–2–3 Ards FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/02/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Ards FC	2-1	Newington FC
17/01/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Newington FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Ards FC
04/10/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Newington FC	0-3	Ards FC
22/02/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Ards FC	1-1	Newington FC
02/11/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Newington FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Ards FC
17/08/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Ards FC	3-2	Newington FC

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Newington FC	9	6	2	1	24	11	20
2	Annagh United	9	6	2	1	23	12	20
3	Glenavon	9	5	2	2	22	13	17
4	Queens University	9	5	1	3	18	7	16
5	HW Welders	9	5	0	4	17	13	15
6	Newry City	9	4	3	2	15	16	15
7	Warrenpoint Town	9	4	1	4	17	14	13
8	Ballinamallard Utd	9	4	1	4	15	15	13
9	Institute	9	4	1	4	13	17	13
10	Dundela	9	2	5	2	18	18	11
11	Ards FC	9	3	2	4	11	12	11
12	Moyola Park	9	3	2	4	10	17	11
13	Loughgall	9	2	4	3	12	18	10
14	Strabane Athletic	10	2	3	5	10	19	9
15	Armagh City	10	0	5	5	8	16	5
16	Rathfriland Rangers	9	1	0	8	6	21	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newington FC	Ards FC
Ballinamallard Utd	4-0 W	1-1 D
Glenavon	0-1 L	3-1 W
Dundela	5-5 D	2-2 D
Warrenpoint Town	1-0 W	3-1 W
Strabane Athletic	2-1 W	0-1 L
Rathfriland Rangers	4-0 W	1-0 W
Queens University	2-1 W	0-3 L
Loughgall	2-2 D	1-2 L
Annagh United	4-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Newington FC (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newington FC

WDWWWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-7	–	–	L
26/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	4-0	7	2	W
19/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-5	–	–	D
05/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
28/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
15/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-1	10	3	W
11/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	2-2	6	8	D
08/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	–	4-1	–	–	W

Ards FC

WDWLLLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
26/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
19/09	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-0	13	2	W
04/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-2	10	7	L
28/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	0-3	7	7	L
22/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
15/08	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W
11/08	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-2	8	4	D
08/08	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newington FC vs Ards FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newington FC win (53%). Probabilities: Newington FC 53%, draw 24%, Ards FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Newington FC vs Ards FC?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Newington FC 2.05 · Ards FC 1.34), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Newington FC vs Ards FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.