Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 09/10, 20:45

Prediction: Newry City vs Dundela

Team pages: Newry City · Dundela

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

Newry City2.21

Dundela1.35

1X2

55% 23% 22%

Newry City Draw Dundela

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Newry City 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWDDDWL

Dundela 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLLWDDWL

Head-to-head

Newry City 2–2–2 Dundela (6 last)

Newry City1-1Dundela
Newry City0-2Dundela
Dundela1-0Newry City
Newry City2-1Dundela
Newry City1-0Dundela
Dundela2-2Newry City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newry City 1505 · Dundela 1488

	Newry City	Draw	Dundela
Our model	56%	22%	22%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newry City	Dundela
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	1.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/17/33%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	2.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.75

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:52 +11’	1.61	3.75	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Newry City 2–2–2 Dundela

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Newry City	1-1 HT 1-1	Dundela
22/11/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Newry City	0-2 HT 0-2	Dundela
10/08/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Dundela	1-0 HT 1-0	Newry City
06/08/22 Club Friendly List	Newry City	2-1 HT 1-1	Dundela
28/01/22 Northern Ireland Championship	Newry City	1-0 HT 1-0	Dundela
26/11/21 Northern Ireland Championship	Dundela	2-2	Newry City

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Newington FC	9	6	2	1	24	11	20
2	Annagh United	9	6	2	1	23	12	20
3	Glenavon	9	5	2	2	22	13	17
4	Queens University	9	5	1	3	18	7	16
5	HW Welders	9	5	0	4	17	13	15
6	Newry City	9	4	3	2	15	16	15
7	Warrenpoint Town	9	4	1	4	17	14	13
8	Ballinamallard Utd	9	4	1	4	15	15	13
9	Institute	9	4	1	4	13	17	13
10	Dundela	9	2	5	2	18	18	11
11	Ards FC	9	3	2	4	11	12	11
12	Moyola Park	9	3	2	4	10	17	11
13	Loughgall	9	2	4	3	12	18	10
14	Strabane Athletic	10	2	3	5	10	19	9
15	Armagh City	10	0	5	5	8	16	5
16	Rathfriland Rangers	9	1	0	8	6	21	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newry City	Dundela
HW Welders	3-2 W	0-2 L
Annagh United	1-1 D	2-2 D
Strabane Athletic	2-2 D	1-1 D
Armagh City	2-2 D	2-0 W
Glenavon	1-4 L	3-2 W
Ballinamallard Utd	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newry City

WLWLWDDDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-2	–	–	L
25/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-2	3	5	W
18/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-1	14	4	D
11/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
04/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-2	7	7	D
29/08	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
21/08	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
15/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/08	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-4	–	–	L
08/08	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W

Dundela

DDDLLWDDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
26/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
18/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
12/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-5	–	–	D
05/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	3-2	2	3	W
28/08	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
22/08	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	2-2	5	6	D
11/08	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-2	5	4	D
08/08	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-2	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newry City vs Dundela?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newry City win (55%). Probabilities: Newry City 55%, draw 23%, Dundela 22%.

How many goals are expected in Newry City vs Dundela?

The model expects 3.56 goals (Newry City 2.21 · Dundela 1.35), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Newry City vs Dundela?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.