Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Ballinamallard Utd vs Armagh City

Team pages: Ballinamallard Utd · Armagh City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Ballinamallard Utd2.02

Armagh City0.9

1X2

63% 21% 16%

Ballinamallard Utd Draw Armagh City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Ballinamallard Utd 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLDWDW

Armagh City 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLDLDLLD

Head-to-head

Ballinamallard Utd 4–1–1 Armagh City (6 last)

Armagh City0-0Ballinamallard Utd
Armagh City0-3Ballinamallard Utd
Ballinamallard Utd3-1Armagh City
Armagh City0-1Ballinamallard Utd
Ballinamallard Utd2-0Armagh City
Armagh City3-2Ballinamallard Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ballinamallard Utd 1544 · Armagh City 1405

	Ballinamallard Utd	Draw	Armagh City
Our model	63%	23%	15%
Market	64%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ballinamallard Utd (rating 1544 vs 1405).
H2H favours Ballinamallard Utd: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ballinamallard Utd	Armagh City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/50/33%	0/57/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.8	1.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.75 → 5.50▼	Pinn 5.90 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:10 +16’	1.40	4.50	5.75
23:34 +8’	1.48▲	4.33▼	5.00▼
06:02 +9’	1.40▼	4.50▲	5.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +27’	1.38	4.45	5.94
05:51 +21’	1.39▲	4.37▼	5.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ballinamallard Utd 4–1–1 Armagh City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Armagh City	0-0	Ballinamallard Utd
20/12/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Armagh City	0-3	Ballinamallard Utd
11/10/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Ballinamallard Utd	3-1	Armagh City
26/04/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Armagh City	0-1	Ballinamallard Utd
22/03/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Ballinamallard Utd	2-0	Armagh City
02/11/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Armagh City	3-2	Ballinamallard Utd

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	13	8	4	1	33	16	28
2	Newington FC	13	8	2	3	29	22	26
3	Glenavon	12	7	3	2	30	14	24
4	Ballinamallard Utd	13	6	3	4	20	18	21
5	Queens University	13	6	2	5	22	14	20
6	Institute	12	6	2	4	22	17	20
7	Newry City	13	5	4	4	20	22	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
9	Loughgall	13	4	5	4	18	23	17
10	Ards FC	13	4	4	5	15	16	16
11	HW Welders	13	5	1	7	19	22	16
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	14	24	14
13	Rathfriland Rangers	13	4	1	8	14	25	13
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	19	24	11
15	Strabane Athletic	14	2	5	7	13	24	11
16	Armagh City	13	0	6	7	11	22	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ballinamallard Utd	Armagh City
Strabane Athletic	1-0 W	0-0 D
Ards FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Glenavon	1-1 D	2-2 D
Loughgall	6-1 W	0-0 D
Annagh United	1-3 L	1-3 L
Dundela	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ballinamallard Utd (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ballinamallard Utd

WLWDWLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
17/10	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
10/10	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
03/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
26/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-4	3	2	L
19/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	6-1	5	3	W
29/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-1	–	–	W

Armagh City

DLDLDLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
17/10	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
09/10	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
02/10	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
26/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
19/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
12/09	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-5	–	–	L
04/09	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	2-2	3	7	D
28/08	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
22/08	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ballinamallard Utd vs Armagh City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ballinamallard Utd win (63%). Probabilities: Ballinamallard Utd 63%, draw 21%, Armagh City 16%.

How many goals are expected in Ballinamallard Utd vs Armagh City?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Ballinamallard Utd 2.02 · Armagh City 0.9), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ballinamallard Utd vs Armagh City?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.