Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Queens University vs Glenavon

Team pages: Queens University · Glenavon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Queens University1.17

Glenavon1.83

1X2

24% 24% 52%

Queens University Draw Glenavon

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Queens University 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWLDL

Glenavon 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWWWDW

Head-to-head

Queens University 0–1 Glenavon (1 last)

Queens University1-3Glenavon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Queens University 1509 · Glenavon 1585

	Queens University	Draw	Glenavon
Our model	23%	25%	52%
Market	24%	23%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Glenavon (rating 1509 vs 1585).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Queens University	Glenavon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	2.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	1.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/71/14%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4	2.8 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.90

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.70▼	Pinn 4.23 ★
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	1.67 → 1.70▲	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
11:56 +30’	3.80	4.00	1.67
15:17 +20’	3.30▼	3.90▼	1.80▲
06:01 +10’	3.70▲	3.90	1.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +27’	4.01	3.70	1.67
12:02 +31’	4.23▲	3.80▲	1.61▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Queens University 0–0–1 Glenavon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/07/24 UK Friendlies	Queens University	1-3 HT 1-2	Glenavon

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	13	8	4	1	33	16	28
2	Newington FC	13	8	2	3	29	22	26
3	Glenavon	12	7	3	2	30	14	24
4	Ballinamallard Utd	13	6	3	4	20	18	21
5	Queens University	13	6	2	5	22	14	20
6	Institute	12	6	2	4	22	17	20
7	Newry City	13	5	4	4	20	22	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
9	Loughgall	13	4	5	4	18	23	17
10	Ards FC	13	4	4	5	15	16	16
11	HW Welders	13	5	1	7	19	22	16
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	14	24	14
13	Rathfriland Rangers	13	4	1	8	14	25	13
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	19	24	11
15	Strabane Athletic	14	2	5	7	13	24	11
16	Armagh City	13	0	6	7	11	22	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Queens University	Glenavon
Annagh United	1-5 L	1-1 D
Ballinamallard Utd	0-1 L	1-1 D
Dundela	2-0 W	2-3 L
Moyola Park	0-1 L	3-0 W
Rathfriland Rangers	0-1 L	3-1 W
Loughgall	1-0 W	4-1 W
Strabane Athletic	6-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Glenavon (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Queens University

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-5	1	0	L
17/10	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
10/10	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
03/10	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
26/09	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
19/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	–	6-0	–	–	W
28/08	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	3-0	1	7	W
22/08	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	4-1	5	4	W

Glenavon

WDWLDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	4-0	7	5	W
10/10	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-1	5	9	D
03/10	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-0	–	–	W
25/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	4-1	5	8	W
19/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	2-3	12	3	L
28/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	3-1	6	5	W
22/08	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	–	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Queens University vs Glenavon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Glenavon win (52%). Probabilities: Queens University 24%, draw 24%, Glenavon 52%.

How many goals are expected in Queens University vs Glenavon?

The model expects 3 goals (Queens University 1.17 · Glenavon 1.83), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Queens University vs Glenavon?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.