Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 06/11, 20:45

Prediction: Moyola Park vs Newry City

Team pages: Moyola Park · Newry City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Moyola Park1.35

Newry City1.76

1X2

29% 25% 46%

Moyola Park Draw Newry City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Moyola Park 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWLWLD

Newry City 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLWDLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moyola Park 1490 · Newry City 1491

	Moyola Park	Draw	Newry City
Our model	28%	25%	46%
Market	29%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moyola Park	Newry City
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/67/0%	56/33/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.3	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.60

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:59 +7’	3.10	3.60	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	14	9	4	1	36	16	31
2	Glenavon	13	8	3	2	34	16	27
3	Newington FC	13	8	2	3	29	22	26
4	Institute	13	6	3	4	23	18	21
5	Ballinamallard Utd	14	6	3	5	20	19	21
6	Queens University	14	6	2	6	24	18	20
7	Newry City	14	5	5	4	21	23	20
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
9	Ards FC	14	4	5	5	16	17	17
10	Loughgall	14	4	5	5	18	26	17
11	HW Welders	13	5	1	7	19	22	16
12	Moyola Park	13	4	3	6	15	25	15
13	Rathfriland Rangers	13	4	1	8	14	25	13
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	19	24	11
15	Strabane Athletic	14	2	5	7	13	24	11
16	Armagh City	14	1	6	7	12	22	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moyola Park	Newry City
Institute	1-1 D	3-1 W
Newington FC	2-3 L	0-2 L
Loughgall	2-1 W	1-2 L
Queens University	1-0 W	1-1 D
Ards FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
HW Welders	1-4 L	3-2 W
Armagh City	1-0 W	2-2 D
Annagh United	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Moyola Park (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Moyola Park

LWLLDWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
16/10	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-3	3	8	L
10/10	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
03/10	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-3	–	–	L
26/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
19/09	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-6	–	–	L
05/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-4	–	–	L
28/08	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	3	6	L

Newry City

WDDDWLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
23/10	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
17/10	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
09/10	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	3-1	3-1	5	3	W
03/10	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-2	–	–	L
25/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-2	3	5	W
18/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-1	14	4	D
11/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
04/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-2	7	7	D
29/08	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moyola Park vs Newry City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Newry City win (46%). Probabilities: Moyola Park 29%, draw 25%, Newry City 46%.

How many goals are expected in Moyola Park vs Newry City?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Moyola Park 1.35 · Newry City 1.76), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Moyola Park vs Newry City?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.