Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 16/10, 20:45
Prediction: Ards FC vs Institute
Team pages: Ards FC · Institute
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
Ards FC1.6
Institute1.34
1X2
Ards FC
Draw
Institute
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Ards FC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Institute
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ards FC
2–2–2
Institute
(6 last)
- Institute3-1Ards FC
- Ards FC0-0Institute
- Ards FC0-3Institute
- Institute2-2Ards FC
- Institute2-3Ards FC
- Institute2-4Ards FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ards FC 1466 · Institute 1527
| Ards FC | Draw | Institute | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Institute (rating 1466 vs 1527).
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ards FC | Institute | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.2 | 1.9 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 38/50/13% | 14/57/29% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 7.3 | 2.6 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.3 | 4.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ards FC 2–2–2 Institute
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Northern Ireland Championship | Institute | 3-1 | Ards FC |
| 24/01/26 Northern Ireland Championship | Ards FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Institute |
| 25/10/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Ards FC | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Institute |
| 16/08/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Institute | 2-2 | Ards FC |
| 18/03/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Institute | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Ards FC |
| 16/11/24 Northern Ireland Championship | Institute | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Ards FC |
Standings · Northern Ireland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Annagh United | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 14 | 22 |
| 2 | Glenavon | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 14 | 21 |
| 3 | Newington FC | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 20 | 20 |
| 4 | Queens University | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Newry City | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 19 | 18 |
| 6 | Warrenpoint Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 17 |
| 7 | Institute | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 17 |
| 8 | Ballinamallard Utd | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 17 |
| 9 | HW Welders | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 16 |
| 10 | Ards FC | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 15 |
| 11 | Moyola Park | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 21 | 14 |
| 12 | Loughgall | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 13 |
| 13 | Dundela | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 23 | 11 |
| 14 | Strabane Athletic | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 9 |
| 15 | Rathfriland Rangers | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 23 | 9 |
| 16 | Armagh City | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ards FC | Institute |
|---|---|---|
| Newington FC | 2-0 W | 7-0 W |
| Ballinamallard Utd | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Rathfriland Rangers | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Annagh United | 1-2 L | 0-5 L |
| Queens University | 0-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Loughgall | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Warrenpoint Town | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Institute (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ards FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 03/10 | Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 26/09 | Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 12/09 | Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 04/09 | Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 28/08 | Queens University Northern Ireland Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 22/08 | Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 15/08 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Dundela Northern Ireland Championship |
0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
Institute
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 03/10 | Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/09 | Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship |
0-3 | 0-5 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/09 | Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 5-3 | – | – | W |
| 05/09 | Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Newry City Northern Ireland Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Queens University Northern Ireland Championship |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/08 | Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ards FC vs Institute?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ards FC win (43%). Probabilities: Ards FC 43%, draw 26%, Institute 31%.
How many goals are expected in Ards FC vs Institute?
The model expects 2.94 goals (Ards FC 1.6 · Institute 1.34), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ards FC vs Institute?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.