Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 16/10, 20:45

Prediction: Strabane Athletic vs Loughgall

Team pages: Strabane Athletic · Loughgall

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Strabane Athletic1.17

Loughgall1.62

1X2

27% 27% 47%

Strabane Athletic Draw Loughgall

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Strabane Athletic 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Loughgall 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Strabane Athletic 0–1–0 Loughgall (1 last)

Loughgall2-2Strabane Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Strabane Athletic 1467 · Loughgall 1465

	Strabane Athletic	Draw	Loughgall
Our model	27%	27%	46%
Market	27%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Strabane Athletic	Loughgall
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/57/29%	13/50/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.7	1.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.40

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +5’	3.30	3.40	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Strabane Athletic 0–1–0 Loughgall

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/10/25 Northern Ireland League Cup	Loughgall	2-2 HT 0-1	Strabane Athletic

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	11	6	4	1	25	14	22
2	Glenavon	11	6	3	2	26	14	21
3	Newington FC	11	6	2	3	24	20	20
4	Queens University	11	6	1	4	20	8	19
5	Newry City	11	5	3	3	19	19	18
6	Warrenpoint Town	11	5	2	4	19	15	17
7	Institute	11	5	2	4	20	17	17
8	Ballinamallard Utd	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
9	HW Welders	11	5	1	5	18	16	16
10	Ards FC	11	4	3	4	14	13	15
11	Moyola Park	11	4	2	5	12	21	14
12	Loughgall	11	3	4	4	15	21	13
13	Dundela	11	2	5	4	19	23	11
14	Strabane Athletic	11	2	3	6	10	20	9
15	Rathfriland Rangers	11	3	0	8	11	23	9
16	Armagh City	11	0	5	6	9	18	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Strabane Athletic	Loughgall
Warrenpoint Town	0-1 L	3-3 D
Armagh City	0-0 D	0-0 D
Ards FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Newry City	2-2 D	2-1 W
Queens University	0-6 L	0-1 L
Newington FC	1-2 L	2-2 D
Glenavon	1-4 L	1-4 L
Moyola Park	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Loughgall (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Strabane Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
02/10	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
26/09	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
18/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
11/09	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	2-2	2-2	7	4	D
05/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-6	–	–	L
28/08	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
22/08	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
15/08	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-4	–	–	L
11/08	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	3-1	2	8	W

Loughgall

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	1-2	3	5	L
03/10	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-1	–	–	W
25/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-4	3	8	L
19/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
12/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-6	7	3	L
28/08	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	3-3	3	2	D
22/08	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
15/08	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
11/08	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	2-2	1	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Strabane Athletic vs Loughgall?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Loughgall win (47%). Probabilities: Strabane Athletic 27%, draw 27%, Loughgall 47%.

How many goals are expected in Strabane Athletic vs Loughgall?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Strabane Athletic 1.17 · Loughgall 1.62), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Strabane Athletic vs Loughgall?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.