Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Ards FC vs Newry City

Team pages: Ards FC · Newry City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Ards FC1.4

Newry City1.19

1X2

41% 27% 31%

Ards FC Draw Newry City

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ards FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLDWLD

Newry City 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDDWLWDL

Head-to-head

Ards FC 1–1–4 Newry City (6 last)

Newry City2-0Ards FC
Ards FC0-1Newry City
Newry City1-4Ards FC
Newry City4-0Ards FC
Newry City1-0Ards FC
Ards FC1-1Newry City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ards FC 1445 · Newry City 1476

	Ards FC	Draw	Newry City
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	42%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Newry City: 4-1-1.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ards FC	Newry City
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.2	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/38/25%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 7.6	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.15▼	Bet365 2.15
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	2.70 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.93 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:04 +22’	2.20	3.50	2.70
06:05 +7’	2.15▼	3.40▼	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +27’	2.10	3.31	2.94
05:44 +27’	2.11▲	3.29▼	2.93▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ards FC 1–1–4 Newry City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Newry City	2-0	Ards FC
14/12/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Ards FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Newry City
04/10/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Newry City	1-4 HT 0-2	Ards FC
12/03/22 Northern Ireland Championship	Newry City	4-0	Ards FC
04/02/22 Northern Ireland Cup	Newry City	1-0 HT 1-0	Ards FC
29/10/21 Northern Ireland Championship	Ards FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Newry City

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	13	8	4	1	33	16	28
2	Newington FC	13	8	2	3	29	22	26
3	Glenavon	12	7	3	2	30	14	24
4	Ballinamallard Utd	13	6	3	4	20	18	21
5	Queens University	13	6	2	5	22	14	20
6	Institute	12	6	2	4	22	17	20
7	Newry City	13	5	4	4	20	22	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
9	Loughgall	13	4	5	4	18	23	17
10	Ards FC	13	4	4	5	15	16	16
11	HW Welders	13	5	1	7	19	22	16
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	14	24	14
13	Rathfriland Rangers	13	4	1	8	14	25	13
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	19	24	11
15	Strabane Athletic	14	2	5	7	13	24	11
16	Armagh City	13	0	6	7	11	22	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ards FC	Newry City
Armagh City	1-1 D	2-2 D
Institute	0-2 L	3-1 W
Newington FC	2-0 W	0-2 L
Strabane Athletic	0-1 L	2-2 D
Annagh United	1-2 L	1-1 D
Queens University	0-3 L	1-1 D
Loughgall	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Newry City (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ards FC

LLLWDLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
16/10	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	0-2	11	4	L
09/10	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-0	8	2	W
03/10	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
26/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
19/09	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-0	13	2	W
04/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-2	10	7	L
28/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	0-3	7	7	L
22/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-2	5	6	L

Newry City

LWDDDWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
17/10	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
09/10	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	3-1	3-1	5	3	W
03/10	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-2	–	–	L
25/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-2	3	5	W
18/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-1	14	4	D
11/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
04/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-2	7	7	D
29/08	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
21/08	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-3	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ards FC vs Newry City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ards FC win (41%). Probabilities: Ards FC 41%, draw 27%, Newry City 31%.

How many goals are expected in Ards FC vs Newry City?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Ards FC 1.4 · Newry City 1.19), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ards FC vs Newry City?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.