Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 02/11, 20:00

Prediction: Heracles vs Top Oss

Team pages: Heracles · Top Oss

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.77Total

Heracles2.88

Top Oss0.88

1X2

78% 14% 8%

Heracles Draw Top Oss

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Heracles 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDWWD

Top Oss 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLWWLD

Head-to-head

Heracles 3–0 Top Oss (3 last)

Top Oss1-5Heracles
Heracles3-0Top Oss
Heracles2-1Top Oss

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Heracles 1590 · Top Oss 1505

	Heracles	Draw	Top Oss
Our model	78%	14%	8%
Market	79%	13%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Heracles (rating 1590 vs 1505).
H2H favours Heracles: 3-0-0.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Heracles	Top Oss
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 0.9	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 8.1	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.18

X7.00

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)2.00

2 (+2.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:27 +1’	1.18	7.00	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Heracles 3–0–0 Top Oss

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Top Oss	1-5 HT 0-0	Heracles
19/11/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Heracles	3-0 HT 2-0	Top Oss
21/07/15 Club Friendly List	Heracles	2-1 HT 1-1	Top Oss

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37	14	29
2	VVV	12	8	1	3	34	20	25
3	FC Emmen	12	8	1	3	26	19	25
4	Almere City FC	12	7	1	4	25	12	22
5	Roda JC	12	6	4	2	15	11	22
6	NAC	12	6	3	3	23	20	21
7	FC Volendam	12	6	1	5	29	20	19
8	AZ Reserves	12	5	2	5	31	26	17
9	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16	17	17
10	Maastricht	12	5	2	5	16	27	17
11	RKC	12	3	7	2	21	17	16
12	PSV Reserves	12	4	4	4	17	19	16
13	FC Den Bosch	12	4	3	5	18	21	15
14	Top Oss	12	4	1	7	19	20	13
15	Ajax Reserves	12	3	3	6	18	29	12
16	De Graafschap	12	3	3	6	15	26	12
17	FC Eindhoven	12	3	2	7	16	25	11
18	FC Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16	31	11
19	Helmond Sport	12	2	3	7	20	26	9
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	12	2	1	9	19	31	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Heracles	Top Oss
Maastricht	5-1 W	4-1 W
Helmond Sport	2-2 D	3-1 W
Vitesse	2-0 W	1-2 L
FC Utrecht Reserves	6-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Heracles (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Heracles

WWWWLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
18/10	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	5-1	9	1	W
09/10	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	3-0	9	4	W
02/10	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-2	12	9	D
26/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-0	8	6	W
18/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	8	0	L
11/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	3-2	8	2	W
04/09	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	5-0	5	4	W
30/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-1	10	2	W
24/08	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	5-0	6-1	7	1	W

Top Oss

LWLLWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	3-3	4	4	D
16/10	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-2	9	2	L
09/10	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-1	6	5	W
03/10	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	4-1	3	0	W
26/09	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
18/09	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	1	6	W
11/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
04/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-2	1	4	L
28/08	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
24/08	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Heracles vs Top Oss?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Heracles win (78%). Probabilities: Heracles 78%, draw 14%, Top Oss 8%.

How many goals are expected in Heracles vs Top Oss?

The model expects 3.77 goals (Heracles 2.88 · Top Oss 0.88), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Heracles vs Top Oss?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.