Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 06/11, 20:00

Prediction: FC Dordrecht vs NAC

Team pages: FC Dordrecht · NAC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

FC Dordrecht1.22

NAC2.53

1X2

16% 20% 65%

FC Dordrecht Draw NAC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Dordrecht 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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NAC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Dordrecht 3–1–2 NAC (6 last)

NAC1-4FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht2-2NAC
NAC3-2FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht0-3NAC
NAC1-2FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht2-1NAC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Dordrecht 1400 · NAC 1555

	FC Dordrecht	Draw	NAC
Our model	16%	19%	65%
Market	15%	20%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NAC (rating 1400 vs 1555).
H2H favours FC Dordrecht: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Dordrecht	NAC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.8	2.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.6	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.1	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

16.00

X4.50

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.90

2 (-1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:06 +3’	6.00	4.50	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Dordrecht 3–1–2 NAC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	NAC	1-4 HT 1-2	FC Dordrecht
11/08/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	2-2 HT 1-0	NAC
24/02/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	NAC	3-2 HT 2-0	FC Dordrecht
22/10/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	0-3 HT 0-1	NAC
22/04/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	NAC	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Dordrecht
05/11/21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	2-1 HT 0-0	NAC

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37	14	29
2	VVV	13	9	1	3	36	21	28
3	Almere City FC	13	8	1	4	27	13	25
4	Roda JC	13	7	4	2	17	12	25
5	FC Emmen	13	8	1	4	26	24	25
6	NAC	12	6	3	3	23	20	21
7	FC Volendam	13	6	1	6	30	22	19
8	FC Den Bosch	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
9	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16	17	17
10	AZ Reserves	13	5	2	6	32	28	17
11	Maastricht	13	5	2	6	17	29	17
12	PSV Reserves	12	4	4	4	17	19	16
13	RKC	13	3	7	3	22	19	16
14	De Graafschap	13	4	3	6	17	27	15
15	Top Oss	12	4	1	7	19	20	13
16	Ajax Reserves	12	3	3	6	18	29	12
17	Helmond Sport	13	3	3	7	23	28	12
18	FC Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16	31	11
19	FC Eindhoven	13	3	2	8	18	28	11
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	12	2	1	9	19	31	7

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Dordrecht	NAC
FC Eindhoven	1-2 L	4-2 W
Roda JC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: NAC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Dordrecht

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	2-4	9	5	L
19/10	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
09/10	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
03/10	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
25/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
18/09	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	6	6	L
11/09	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-3	3-6	2	5	L
28/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	1-6	3	4	L
21/08	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	7	5	L

NAC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
16/10	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
09/10	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
03/10	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-2	2	5	D
26/09	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	4-2	13	3	W
20/09	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
11/09	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-3	9	5	L
04/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-4	4	5	L
28/08	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
22/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-2	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Dordrecht vs NAC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NAC win (65%). Probabilities: FC Dordrecht 16%, draw 20%, NAC 65%.

How many goals are expected in FC Dordrecht vs NAC?

The model expects 3.74 goals (FC Dordrecht 1.22 · NAC 2.53), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Dordrecht vs NAC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.