Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 07/11, 16:30

Prediction: FC Den Bosch vs FC Utrecht Reserves

Team pages: FC Den Bosch · FC Utrecht Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

FC Den Bosch2.42

FC Utrecht Reserves1.33

1X2

60% 21% 19%

FC Den Bosch Draw FC Utrecht Reserves

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Den Bosch 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Utrecht Reserves 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Den Bosch 3–2–1 FC Utrecht Reserves (6 last)

FC Den Bosch1-1FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves3-2FC Den Bosch
FC Den Bosch2-0FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves0-3FC Den Bosch
FC Utrecht Reserves0-2FC Den Bosch
FC Den Bosch1-1FC Utrecht Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Den Bosch 1522 · FC Utrecht Reserves 1460

	FC Den Bosch	Draw	FC Utrecht Reserves
Our model	61%	20%	19%
Market	60%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Den Bosch (rating 1522 vs 1460).
H2H favours FC Den Bosch: 3-2-1.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Den Bosch	FC Utrecht Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.7 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.9 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7.8	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.33

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:04 +11’	1.53	4.33	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Den Bosch 3–2–1 FC Utrecht Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Den Bosch	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
24/11/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	3-2 HT 1-0	FC Den Bosch
27/01/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Den Bosch	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
16/09/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Den Bosch
15/04/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	0-2 HT 0-0	FC Den Bosch
04/11/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Den Bosch	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Utrecht Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37	14	29
2	VVV	13	9	1	3	36	21	28
3	Almere City FC	13	8	1	4	27	13	25
4	Roda JC	13	7	4	2	17	12	25
5	FC Emmen	13	8	1	4	26	24	25
6	NAC	12	6	3	3	23	20	21
7	FC Volendam	13	6	1	6	30	22	19
8	FC Den Bosch	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
9	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16	17	17
10	AZ Reserves	13	5	2	6	32	28	17
11	Maastricht	13	5	2	6	17	29	17
12	PSV Reserves	12	4	4	4	17	19	16
13	RKC	13	3	7	3	22	19	16
14	De Graafschap	13	4	3	6	17	27	15
15	Top Oss	12	4	1	7	19	20	13
16	Ajax Reserves	12	3	3	6	18	29	12
17	Helmond Sport	13	3	3	7	23	28	12
18	FC Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16	31	11
19	FC Eindhoven	13	3	2	8	18	28	11
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	12	2	1	9	19	31	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Den Bosch	FC Utrecht Reserves
Top Oss	2-1 W	1-2 L
AZ Reserves	1-0 W	1-2 L
De Graafschap	0-1 L	1-2 L
FC Volendam	0-2 L	2-6 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Den Bosch (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Den Bosch

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	5-0	6	0	W
23/10	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-2	9	4	D
16/10	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-1	2	2	W
09/10	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	7	1	W
03/10	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
27/09	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
18/09	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
13/09	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
07/09	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-3	10	2	L
28/08	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	1-4	16	3	L

FC Utrecht Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	2-6	14	1	L
19/10	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
09/10	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
18/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-3	5	2	L
14/09	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-0	6-1	5	7	W
11/09	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	3-2	1	5	W
07/09	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
31/08	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
28/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
24/08	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-5	1-6	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Den Bosch vs FC Utrecht Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Den Bosch win (60%). Probabilities: FC Den Bosch 60%, draw 21%, FC Utrecht Reserves 19%.

How many goals are expected in FC Den Bosch vs FC Utrecht Reserves?

The model expects 3.74 goals (FC Den Bosch 2.42 · FC Utrecht Reserves 1.33), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Den Bosch vs FC Utrecht Reserves?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.