Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 06/11, 20:00

Prediction: AZ Reserves vs Almere City FC

Team pages: AZ Reserves · Almere City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4Total

AZ Reserves1.92

Almere City FC2.08

1X2

36% 22% 42%

AZ Reserves Draw Almere City FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

AZ Reserves 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWLDWL

Almere City FC 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWWLL

Head-to-head

AZ Reserves 3–3 Almere City FC (6 last)

AZ Reserves3-4Almere City FC
Almere City FC1-3AZ Reserves
Almere City FC2-1AZ Reserves
AZ Reserves3-2Almere City FC
AZ Reserves1-3Almere City FC
Almere City FC0-3AZ Reserves

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Almere City FC (rating 1486 vs 1565).
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AZ Reserves	Almere City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 2.2	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.2	2.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.84

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:07

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.78 → 2.78	Pinn 2.78
X	4.22 → 4.22	Pinn 4.22
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:04 +63’	2.78	4.22	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AZ Reserves 3–0–3 Almere City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/01/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	3-4 HT 1-2	Almere City FC
24/10/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Almere City FC	1-3 HT 1-1	AZ Reserves
07/04/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Almere City FC	2-1 HT 2-1	AZ Reserves
22/08/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	3-2 HT 2-0	Almere City FC
02/07/22 Europe Friendlies	AZ Reserves	1-3 HT 0-1	Almere City FC
06/05/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Almere City FC	0-3 HT 0-0	AZ Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37	14	29
2	VVV	12	8	1	3	34	20	25
3	FC Emmen	12	8	1	3	26	19	25
4	Almere City FC	13	8	1	4	27	13	25
5	Roda JC	13	7	4	2	17	12	25
6	NAC	12	6	3	3	23	20	21
7	FC Volendam	13	6	1	6	30	22	19
8	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16	17	17
9	Maastricht	12	5	2	5	16	27	17
10	AZ Reserves	13	5	2	6	32	28	17
11	PSV Reserves	12	4	4	4	17	19	16
12	RKC	13	3	7	3	22	19	16
13	FC Den Bosch	12	4	3	5	18	21	15
14	De Graafschap	13	4	3	6	17	27	15
15	Top Oss	12	4	1	7	19	20	13
16	Ajax Reserves	12	3	3	6	18	29	12
17	Helmond Sport	13	3	3	7	23	28	12
18	FC Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16	31	11
19	FC Eindhoven	13	3	2	8	18	28	11
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	12	2	1	9	19	31	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AZ Reserves	Almere City FC
Roda JC	1-2 L	2-3 L
FC Volendam	4-1 W	1-0 W
Heracles	2-3 L	1-0 W
FC Dordrecht	6-3 W	2-3 L
Maastricht	1-2 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AZ Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
23/10	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-2	5-4	5	0	W
16/10	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	4-4	5	7	D
09/10	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	10	1	L
18/09	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	4-1	5	2	W
14/09	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
11/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-3	1	2	L
05/09	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-2	6-3	6	5	W
31/08	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
28/08	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	5	1	L

Almere City FC

WWLWWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-3	3	0	L
17/10	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
09/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
03/10	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/09	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
18/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
11/09	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	4-0	4	2	W
04/09	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
29/08	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	4-1	5	2	W
21/08	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	3-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AZ Reserves vs Almere City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Almere City FC win (42%). Probabilities: AZ Reserves 36%, draw 22%, Almere City FC 42%.

How many goals are expected in AZ Reserves vs Almere City FC?

The model expects 4 goals (AZ Reserves 1.92 · Almere City FC 2.08), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AZ Reserves vs Almere City FC?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.