Football · Austria Bundesliga · 13/09, 17:00

Prediction: SK Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz

Team pages: SK Sturm Graz · LASK Linz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

SK Sturm Graz1.26

LASK Linz1.5

1X2

31% 27% 42%

SK Sturm Graz Draw LASK Linz

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Sturm Graz 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWWDWWDL

LASK Linz 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

SK Sturm Graz 3–2–1 LASK Linz (6 last)

SK Sturm Graz1-1LASK Linz
LASK Linz1-1SK Sturm Graz
SK Sturm Graz1-3LASK Linz
LASK Linz0-2SK Sturm Graz
SK Sturm Graz4-2LASK Linz
LASK Linz1-2SK Sturm Graz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Sturm Graz 1564 · LASK Linz 1651

	SK Sturm Graz	Draw	LASK Linz
Our model	31%	28%	42%
Market	31%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LASK Linz (rating 1564 vs 1651).
H2H favours SK Sturm Graz: 3-2-1.
High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Sturm Graz	LASK Linz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	2.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 7.7	3.3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.6	3.2 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.50

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.73 ★
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.23

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +1’	2.90	3.50	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:03 +448’	3.00	3.73	2.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Sturm Graz 3–2–1 LASK Linz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	1-1 HT 0-0	LASK Linz
19/04/26 Austria Bundesliga	LASK Linz	1-1 HT 0-1	SK Sturm Graz
23/11/25 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	1-3 HT 1-2	LASK Linz
01/08/25 Austria Bundesliga	LASK Linz	0-2 HT 0-2	SK Sturm Graz
16/03/25 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	4-2 HT 1-0	LASK Linz
27/10/24 Austria Bundesliga	LASK Linz	1-2 HT 0-1	SK Sturm Graz

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	LASK Linz	5	5	0	0	15	2	15
2	FC Salzburg	5	4	1	0	14	3	13
3	Rapid Vienna	5	4	0	1	15	7	12
4	SK Sturm Graz	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
5	WSG Swarovski Tirol	5	2	1	2	7	7	7
6	Hartberg	5	2	0	3	5	8	6
7	Austria Lustenau	5	1	2	2	5	9	5
8	Wolfsberger AC	5	1	2	2	6	6	5
9	SV Ried	5	1	1	3	6	10	4
10	Grazer AK	5	1	1	3	2	13	4
11	SCR Altach	5	1	0	4	4	8	3
12	FK Austria Vienna	5	1	0	4	3	10	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Sturm Graz	LASK Linz
Rapid Vienna	1-3 L	3-1 W
SCR Altach	1-0 W	3-0 W
Hartberg	2-0 W	5-1 W
FC Salzburg	1-1 D	2-1 W
FK Austria Vienna	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: LASK Linz (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Sturm Graz

DDDWWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-2	1-3	4	6	L
22/08	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
15/08	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
08/08	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
01/08	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
17/05	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
10/05	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	3-1	4-2	7	6	W
03/05	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
26/04	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
22/04	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	7	7	D

LASK Linz

DWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	0-1	3-1	14	5	W
29/08	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	2-0	3-0	4	6	W
14/08	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	3-1	4-1	6	4	W
09/08	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	11	5	W
31/07	Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
17/05	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
10/05	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
04/05	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-1	3-1	4	1	W
26/04	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	2-0	5-1	2	4	W
22/04	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an LASK Linz win (42%). Probabilities: SK Sturm Graz 31%, draw 27%, LASK Linz 42%.

How many goals are expected in SK Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz?

The model expects 2.77 goals (SK Sturm Graz 1.26 · LASK Linz 1.5), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.