Football · Austria Bundesliga · 13/09, 14:30

Prediction: WSG Swarovski Tirol vs Hartberg

Team pages: WSG Swarovski Tirol · Hartberg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

WSG Swarovski Tirol1.59

Hartberg1.19

1X2

46% 27% 28%

WSG Swarovski Tirol Draw Hartberg

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

WSG Swarovski Tirol 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Hartberg 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

WSG Swarovski Tirol 1–1–4 Hartberg (6 last)

Hartberg2-1WSG Swarovski Tirol
WSG Swarovski Tirol4-2Hartberg
Hartberg3-2WSG Swarovski Tirol
WSG Swarovski Tirol1-3Hartberg
WSG Swarovski Tirol0-0Hartberg
Hartberg1-0WSG Swarovski Tirol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · WSG Swarovski Tirol 1510 · Hartberg 1532

	WSG Swarovski Tirol	Draw	Hartberg
Our model	45%	27%	27%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hartberg: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	WSG Swarovski Tirol	Hartberg
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	1.6 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.06
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.67 ★
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.43

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +1’	2.00	3.50	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:31 +596’	2.08	3.66	3.36
01:12 +12’	2.06▼	3.67▲	3.43▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · WSG Swarovski Tirol 1–1–4 Hartberg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/12/25 Austria Bundesliga	Hartberg	2-1 HT 0-0	WSG Swarovski Tirol
02/08/25 Austria Bundesliga	WSG Swarovski Tirol	4-2 HT 2-2	Hartberg
17/05/25 Austria Bundesliga	Hartberg	3-2 HT 0-1	WSG Swarovski Tirol
05/04/25 Austria Bundesliga	WSG Swarovski Tirol	1-3 HT 0-1	Hartberg
09/02/25 Austria Bundesliga	WSG Swarovski Tirol	0-0 HT 0-0	Hartberg
26/09/24 Austria Bundesliga	Hartberg	1-0 HT 0-0	WSG Swarovski Tirol

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	LASK Linz	5	5	0	0	15	2	15
2	FC Salzburg	5	4	1	0	14	3	13
3	Rapid Vienna	5	4	0	1	15	7	12
4	SK Sturm Graz	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
5	WSG Swarovski Tirol	5	2	1	2	7	7	7
6	Hartberg	5	2	0	3	5	8	6
7	Austria Lustenau	5	1	2	2	5	9	5
8	Wolfsberger AC	5	1	2	2	6	6	5
9	SV Ried	5	1	1	3	6	10	4
10	Grazer AK	5	1	1	3	2	13	4
11	SCR Altach	5	1	0	4	4	8	3
12	FK Austria Vienna	5	1	0	4	3	10	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	WSG Swarovski Tirol	Hartberg
FK Austria Vienna	1-0 W	0-2 L
FC Salzburg	0-3 L	0-1 L
SCR Altach	1-3 L	2-1 W
SK Sturm Graz	1-1 D	0-2 L
SV Ried	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

WSG Swarovski Tirol

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
28/08	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	1-0	4-0	12	3	W
16/08	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
07/08	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	1-1	1-3	5	2	L
01/08	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
16/05	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
09/05	FC Blau Weiss Linz Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
02/05	Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga	0-2	0-4	5	3	L
25/04	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
21/04	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

Hartberg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	2-1	3-2	3	3	W
22/08	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
16/08	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
08/08	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
01/08	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
17/05	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	2-0	3-1	2	2	W
10/05	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	1-3	2-4	2	6	L
03/05	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
26/04	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-2	1-5	6	4	L
22/04	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in WSG Swarovski Tirol vs Hartberg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a WSG Swarovski Tirol win (46%). Probabilities: WSG Swarovski Tirol 46%, draw 27%, Hartberg 28%.

How many goals are expected in WSG Swarovski Tirol vs Hartberg?

The model expects 2.78 goals (WSG Swarovski Tirol 1.59 · Hartberg 1.19), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in WSG Swarovski Tirol vs Hartberg?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.