Football · Austria Bundesliga · 20/09, 17:00

Prediction: FC Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz

Team pages: FC Salzburg · SK Sturm Graz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

FC Salzburg1.73

SK Sturm Graz0.96

1X2

55% 24% 21%

FC Salzburg Draw SK Sturm Graz

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Salzburg 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDLLWDWWWD

SK Sturm Graz 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWWDWWDL

Head-to-head

FC Salzburg 0–3–3 SK Sturm Graz (6 last)

FC Salzburg1-1SK Sturm Graz
SK Sturm Graz1-1FC Salzburg
SK Sturm Graz1-1FC Salzburg
FC Salzburg0-2SK Sturm Graz
SK Sturm Graz4-2FC Salzburg
FC Salzburg1-2SK Sturm Graz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Salzburg 1569 · SK Sturm Graz 1575

	FC Salzburg	Draw	SK Sturm Graz
Our model	54%	26%	20%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SK Sturm Graz: 3-3-0.
High corners: 15.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Salzburg	SK Sturm Graz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.6 / 7.8	2.9 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.10

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.65
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.35 ★
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +3’	1.65	4.10	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:21 +366’	1.65	4.35	4.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Salzburg 0–3–3 SK Sturm Graz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Austria Bundesliga	FC Salzburg	1-1 HT 1-0	SK Sturm Graz
20/03/26 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Salzburg
09/11/25 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Salzburg
20/09/25 Austria Bundesliga	FC Salzburg	0-2 HT 0-1	SK Sturm Graz
09/05/25 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	4-2 HT 2-1	FC Salzburg
13/04/25 Austria Bundesliga	FC Salzburg	1-2 HT 1-0	SK Sturm Graz

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	LASK Linz	6	5	0	1	16	4	15
2	Rapid Vienna	6	5	0	1	18	7	15
3	FC Salzburg	6	4	2	0	15	4	14
4	SK Sturm Graz	6	3	2	1	8	6	11
5	WSG Swarovski Tirol	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
6	Hartberg	6	2	1	3	7	10	7
7	Grazer AK	6	2	1	3	4	14	7
8	FK Austria Vienna	6	2	0	4	5	11	6
9	Austria Lustenau	6	1	2	3	6	11	5
10	SV Ried	6	1	2	3	7	11	5
11	Wolfsberger AC	6	1	2	3	6	9	5
12	SCR Altach	6	1	0	5	5	10	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Salzburg	SK Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna	5-1 W	1-3 L
FK Austria Vienna	4-1 W	1-1 D
WSG Swarovski Tirol	3-0 W	1-1 D
Hartberg	1-0 W	2-0 W
LASK Linz	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Salzburg (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Salzburg

LDLLWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
02/09	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	3-0	5-1	2	1	W
30/08	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	3-0	4-1	7	2	W
16/08	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	2-0	3-0	7	3	W
09/08	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
01/08	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	19	0	W
17/05	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-2	1-3	13	2	L
10/05	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
03/05	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
26/04	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L

SK Sturm Graz

DDDWWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-2	1-3	4	6	L
22/08	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
15/08	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
08/08	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
01/08	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
17/05	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
10/05	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	3-1	4-2	7	6	W
03/05	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
26/04	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
22/04	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	7	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Salzburg win (55%). Probabilities: FC Salzburg 55%, draw 24%, SK Sturm Graz 21%.

How many goals are expected in FC Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz?

The model expects 2.69 goals (FC Salzburg 1.73 · SK Sturm Graz 0.96), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.