Football · Austria Bundesliga · 01/11, 14:30
Prediction: Wolfsberger AC vs SK Sturm Graz
Team pages: Wolfsberger AC · SK Sturm Graz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
Wolfsberger AC0.94
SK Sturm Graz1.83
1X2
Wolfsberger AC
Draw
SK Sturm Graz
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Wolfsberger AC
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
SK Sturm Graz
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Wolfsberger AC
3–3–0
SK Sturm Graz
(6 last)
- Wolfsberger AC2-2SK Sturm Graz
- SK Sturm Graz1-3Wolfsberger AC
- SK Sturm Graz1-1Wolfsberger AC
- Wolfsberger AC1-1SK Sturm Graz
- Wolfsberger AC3-0SK Sturm Graz
- SK Sturm Graz0-3Wolfsberger AC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Wolfsberger AC 1431 · SK Sturm Graz 1565
| Wolfsberger AC | Draw | SK Sturm Graz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 25% | 57% |
| Market | 19% | 22% | 59% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Sturm Graz (rating 1431 vs 1565).
- H2H favours Wolfsberger AC: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Wolfsberger AC | SK Sturm Graz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.9 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.3 | 3.3 / 7.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.4 | 3.6 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Wolfsberger AC 3–3–0 SK Sturm Graz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Austria Bundesliga | Wolfsberger AC | 2-2 HT 1-0 | SK Sturm Graz |
| 26/10/25 Austria Bundesliga | SK Sturm Graz | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Wolfsberger AC |
| 24/05/25 Austria Bundesliga | SK Sturm Graz | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Wolfsberger AC |
| 30/03/25 Austria Bundesliga | Wolfsberger AC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | SK Sturm Graz |
| 15/02/25 Austria Bundesliga | Wolfsberger AC | 3-0 HT 2-0 | SK Sturm Graz |
| 22/09/24 Austria Bundesliga | SK Sturm Graz | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Wolfsberger AC |
Standings · Austria Bundesliga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | FC Salzburg | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 5 | 24 |
| 3 | LASK Linz | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | SK Sturm Graz | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 18 |
| 5 | SV Ried | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 17 | 15 |
| 6 | Hartberg | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 19 | 14 |
| 7 | WSG Swarovski Tirol | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 10 |
| 9 | SCR Altach | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 9 |
| 10 | Austria Lustenau | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 24 | 8 |
| 11 | FK Austria Vienna | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 7 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 5 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Wolfsberger AC | SK Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| Hartberg | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| WSG Swarovski Tirol | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| SCR Altach | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| SV Ried | 1-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Rapid Vienna | 0-3 L | 1-3 L |
| LASK Linz | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Grazer AK | 0-0 D | 6-1 W |
| Austria Lustenau | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| FC Salzburg | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| FK Austria Vienna | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 7 L | 5 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: SK Sturm Graz (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Wolfsberger AC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Hartberg Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 18/10 | WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 11/10 | SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | SV Ried Austria Bundesliga |
0-3 | 1-4 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 01/09 | LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 15/08 | Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 02/08 | FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
SK Sturm Graz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | SV Ried Austria Bundesliga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 18/10 | Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga |
3-1 | 6-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Hartberg Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Wolfsberger AC vs SK Sturm Graz?
According to our model, the most likely result is an SK Sturm Graz win (58%). Probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 19%, draw 23%, SK Sturm Graz 58%.
How many goals are expected in Wolfsberger AC vs SK Sturm Graz?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Wolfsberger AC 0.94 · SK Sturm Graz 1.83), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs SK Sturm Graz?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.