Football · Austria Bundesliga · 08/11, 17:00
Prediction: SK Sturm Graz vs FC Salzburg
Team pages: SK Sturm Graz · FC Salzburg
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.99Total
SK Sturm Graz1.35
FC Salzburg1.64
1X2
SK Sturm Graz
Draw
FC Salzburg
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
SK Sturm Graz
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
FC Salzburg
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SK Sturm Graz
2–3–1
FC Salzburg
(6 last)
- FC Salzburg3-0SK Sturm Graz
- FC Salzburg1-1SK Sturm Graz
- SK Sturm Graz1-1FC Salzburg
- SK Sturm Graz1-1FC Salzburg
- FC Salzburg0-2SK Sturm Graz
- SK Sturm Graz4-2FC Salzburg
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SK Sturm Graz 1545 · FC Salzburg 1591
| SK Sturm Graz | Draw | FC Salzburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 26% | 43% |
| Market | 31% | 24% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Salzburg (rating 1545 vs 1591).
- H2H favours SK Sturm Graz: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SK Sturm Graz | FC Salzburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.2 | 2.8 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 7.4 | 3.6 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.5 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Sturm Graz 2–3–1 FC Salzburg
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/26 Austria Bundesliga | FC Salzburg | 3-0 HT 0-0 | SK Sturm Graz |
| 03/05/26 Austria Bundesliga | FC Salzburg | 1-1 HT 1-0 | SK Sturm Graz |
| 20/03/26 Austria Bundesliga | SK Sturm Graz | 1-1 HT 1-1 | FC Salzburg |
| 09/11/25 Austria Bundesliga | SK Sturm Graz | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Salzburg |
| 20/09/25 Austria Bundesliga | FC Salzburg | 0-2 HT 0-1 | SK Sturm Graz |
| 09/05/25 Austria Bundesliga | SK Sturm Graz | 4-2 HT 2-1 | FC Salzburg |
Standings · Austria Bundesliga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 9 | 33 |
| 2 | FC Salzburg | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 6 | 27 |
| 3 | LASK Linz | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 15 | 25 |
| 4 | SK Sturm Graz | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 13 | 19 |
| 5 | Hartberg | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 17 |
| 6 | SV Ried | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 22 | 16 |
| 7 | WSG Swarovski Tirol | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 12 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 30 | 11 |
| 9 | Grazer AK | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 10 |
| 10 | SCR Altach | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 10 |
| 11 | FK Austria Vienna | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 22 | 7 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 6 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SK Sturm Graz | FC Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsberger AC | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| SV Ried | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Grazer AK | 6-1 W | 0-0 D |
| FK Austria Vienna | 2-0 W | 4-1 W |
| LASK Linz | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Rapid Vienna | 1-3 L | 5-1 W |
| Austria Lustenau | 1-1 D | 5-1 W |
| SCR Altach | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 1 L | 5 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Salzburg (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SK Sturm Graz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 25/10 | SV Ried Austria Bundesliga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 18/10 | Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga |
3-1 | 6-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Hartberg Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
FC Salzburg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga |
3-0 | 5-1 | 15 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 18/10 | SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 10/10 | Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 20/09 | SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 11/09 | SV Ried Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 02/09 | Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga |
3-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga |
3-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SK Sturm Graz vs FC Salzburg?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Salzburg win (44%). Probabilities: SK Sturm Graz 31%, draw 25%, FC Salzburg 44%.
How many goals are expected in SK Sturm Graz vs FC Salzburg?
The model expects 2.99 goals (SK Sturm Graz 1.35 · FC Salzburg 1.64), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in SK Sturm Graz vs FC Salzburg?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.