Football · Austria Bundesliga · 07/11, 17:00

Prediction: Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK

Team pages: Austria Lustenau · Grazer AK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Austria Lustenau1.68

Grazer AK1.82

1X2

34% 26% 40%

Austria Lustenau Draw Grazer AK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Austria Lustenau 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLWDLLWLLL

Grazer AK 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWDDLDL

Head-to-head

Austria Lustenau 2–2–2 Grazer AK (6 last)

Grazer AK2-1Austria Lustenau
Grazer AK0-0Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau2-1Grazer AK
Grazer AK2-0Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau3-1Grazer AK
Grazer AK1-1Austria Lustenau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Austria Lustenau 1473 · Grazer AK 1466

	Austria Lustenau	Draw	Grazer AK
Our model	35%	24%	41%
Market	34%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Austria Lustenau	Grazer AK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.4	0.8 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.9	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.77
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.56
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.47 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +18’	2.70	3.40	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:45 +19’	2.77	3.56	2.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Austria Lustenau 2–2–2 Grazer AK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Austria Bundesliga	Grazer AK	2-1 HT 1-0	Austria Lustenau
26/11/21 Austria 2. Liga	Grazer AK	0-0 HT 0-0	Austria Lustenau
25/07/21 Austria 2. Liga	Austria Lustenau	2-1 HT 1-1	Grazer AK
12/05/21 Austria 2. Liga	Grazer AK	2-0 HT 1-0	Austria Lustenau
11/12/20 Austria 2. Liga	Austria Lustenau	3-1 HT 1-0	Grazer AK
06/06/20 Austria 2. Liga	Grazer AK	1-1 HT 1-1	Austria Lustenau

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	11	10	0	1	33	9	30
2	FC Salzburg	11	8	3	0	29	6	27
3	LASK Linz	11	7	1	3	26	13	22
4	SK Sturm Graz	11	5	4	2	19	13	19
5	Hartberg	11	5	2	4	20	19	17
6	SV Ried	11	4	4	3	19	18	16
7	WSG Swarovski Tirol	11	3	3	5	14	17	12
8	Grazer AK	11	2	4	5	8	27	10
9	SCR Altach	11	3	1	7	11	17	10
10	Austria Lustenau	11	2	2	7	13	29	8
11	FK Austria Vienna	11	2	1	8	10	22	7
12	Wolfsberger AC	11	1	3	7	8	20	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Austria Lustenau	Grazer AK
Rapid Vienna	1-5 L	0-8 L
Hartberg	3-4 L	0-4 L
SCR Altach	2-0 W	2-1 W
FK Austria Vienna	1-2 L	2-2 D
WSG Swarovski Tirol	0-4 L	1-1 D
SK Sturm Graz	1-1 D	1-6 L
Wolfsberger AC	2-1 W	0-0 D
SV Ried	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Austria Lustenau (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Austria Lustenau

DLWDLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-3	1-5	2	3	L
17/10	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-4	4	2	L
11/10	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	2-1	3-4	4	1	L
19/09	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
13/09	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-2	4	1	L
28/08	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-4	8	3	L
22/08	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
15/08	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	2-1	2-1	6	3	W
08/08	Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
02/08	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	1-1	1-1	4	4	D

Grazer AK

WLLDWDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
24/10	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-1	9	2	D
18/10	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	1-3	1-6	2	3	L
10/10	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
19/09	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-1	2-2	2	8	D
12/09	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
29/08	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-0	11	7	D
21/08	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
16/08	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-5	0-8	1	4	L
08/08	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Grazer AK win (40%). Probabilities: Austria Lustenau 34%, draw 26%, Grazer AK 40%.

How many goals are expected in Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Austria Lustenau 1.68 · Grazer AK 1.82), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.