Football · Austria Bundesliga · 30/10, 19:30

Prediction: Grazer AK vs Hartberg

Team pages: Grazer AK · Hartberg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Grazer AK1.85

Hartberg1.29

1X2

49% 25% 25%

Grazer AK Draw Hartberg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Grazer AK 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDWDDL

Hartberg 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWDDWL

Head-to-head

Grazer AK 0–3–3 Hartberg (6 last)

Hartberg1-0Grazer AK
Grazer AK0-0Hartberg
Hartberg1-1Grazer AK
Grazer AK0-3Hartberg
Grazer AK0-3Hartberg
Hartberg1-1Grazer AK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grazer AK 1533 · Hartberg 1544

	Grazer AK	Draw	Hartberg
Our model	50%	25%	26%
Market	49%	25%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hartberg: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grazer AK	Hartberg
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.2	1.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.7	2.3 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.60

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:59 +53’	1.85	3.60	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Grazer AK 0–3–3 Hartberg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Austria Bundesliga	Hartberg	1-0 HT 0-0	Grazer AK
18/10/25 Austria Bundesliga	Grazer AK	0-0 HT 0-0	Hartberg
25/04/25 Austria Bundesliga	Hartberg	1-1 HT 1-1	Grazer AK
22/04/25 Austria Bundesliga	Grazer AK	0-3 HT 0-0	Hartberg
08/12/24 Austria Bundesliga	Grazer AK	0-3 HT 0-1	Hartberg
31/08/24 Austria Bundesliga	Hartberg	1-1 HT 0-1	Grazer AK

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	9	8	0	1	26	8	24
2	FC Salzburg	9	6	3	0	21	4	21
3	LASK Linz	9	6	1	2	23	9	19
4	SK Sturm Graz	9	5	2	2	16	10	17
5	SV Ried	9	4	2	3	16	15	14
6	WSG Swarovski Tirol	9	3	2	4	12	14	11
7	Hartberg	9	3	2	4	15	19	11
8	Grazer AK	9	2	3	4	7	22	9
9	SCR Altach	10	3	0	7	10	16	9
10	Austria Lustenau	9	2	2	5	11	19	8
11	FK Austria Vienna	10	2	1	7	10	20	7
12	Wolfsberger AC	9	1	2	6	7	18	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grazer AK	Hartberg
SK Sturm Graz	1-6 L	0-2 L
FC Salzburg	0-0 D	0-1 L
FK Austria Vienna	2-2 D	0-2 L
SCR Altach	2-1 W	2-1 W
SV Ried	0-1 L	3-2 W
Rapid Vienna	0-8 L	1-3 L
Austria Lustenau	2-1 W	4-3 W
LASK Linz	0-3 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Hartberg (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grazer AK

WLWLLDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	1-3	1-6	2	3	L
10/10	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
19/09	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-1	2-2	2	8	D
12/09	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
29/08	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-0	11	7	D
21/08	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
16/08	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-5	0-8	1	4	L
08/08	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
31/07	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
16/05	FC Blau Weiss Linz Austria Bundesliga	1-0	3-0	4	3	W

Hartberg

WLLLWWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
11/10	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	1-2	4-3	4	1	W
20/09	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-2	3-3	1	4	D
13/09	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	2-0	2-2	5	0	D
30/08	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	2-1	3-2	3	3	W
22/08	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
16/08	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
08/08	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
01/08	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
17/05	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	2-0	3-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grazer AK vs Hartberg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Grazer AK win (49%). Probabilities: Grazer AK 49%, draw 25%, Hartberg 25%.

How many goals are expected in Grazer AK vs Hartberg?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Grazer AK 1.85 · Hartberg 1.29), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Hartberg?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.