Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 06/11, 17:00

Prediction: FK Bokelj vs FK Mornar Bar

Team pages: FK Bokelj · FK Mornar Bar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.96Total

FK Bokelj0.87

FK Mornar Bar1.09

1X2

29% 31% 40%

FK Bokelj Draw FK Mornar Bar

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Bokelj 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWDWLWDL

FK Mornar Bar 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLDDWWLD

Head-to-head

FK Bokelj 0–2–4 FK Mornar Bar (6 last)

FK Mornar Bar2-0FK Bokelj
FK Mornar Bar0-0FK Bokelj
FK Bokelj1-2FK Mornar Bar
FK Mornar Bar0-0FK Bokelj
FK Bokelj1-2FK Mornar Bar
FK Mornar Bar4-1FK Bokelj

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Bokelj 1490 · FK Mornar Bar 1544

	FK Bokelj	Draw	FK Mornar Bar
Our model	27%	34%	39%
Market	30%	29%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Mornar Bar (rating 1490 vs 1544).
H2H favours FK Mornar Bar: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Bokelj	FK Mornar Bar
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.7	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.10

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 16:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.61 ★
X	3.20 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
2	1.95 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.19

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +12’	3.50	3.20	1.95
15:59 +6’	3.30▼	3.10▼	2.05▲
01:04 +3’	3.20▼	3.00▼	2.15▲
16:56	3.00▼	3.10▲	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:01 +5’	3.43	2.78	2.30
15:01 +37’	3.49▲	2.82▲	2.33▲
16:46 +9’	3.61▲	2.95▲	2.19▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Bokelj 0–2–4 FK Mornar Bar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/09/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Mornar Bar	2-0 HT 2-0	FK Bokelj
10/05/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Mornar Bar	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Bokelj
11/03/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Bokelj	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Mornar Bar
09/11/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Mornar Bar	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Bokelj
13/09/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Bokelj	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Mornar Bar
18/05/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Mornar Bar	4-1 HT 3-0	FK Bokelj

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Buducnost Podgorica	14	7	4	3	19	12	25
2	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	14	7	3	4	24	18	24
3	Sutjeska Niksic	14	6	5	3	19	10	23
4	FK Mornar Bar	14	5	6	3	20	15	21
5	FK Bokelj	13	5	4	4	10	10	19
6	FK Decic Tuzi	13	5	3	5	12	11	18
7	OFK Petrovac	13	3	6	4	12	13	15
8	FK Jezero	14	3	6	5	16	22	15
9	OFK Mladost DG	14	3	3	8	11	23	12
10	FK Arsenal	13	1	6	6	10	19	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Bokelj	FK Mornar Bar
Buducnost Podgorica	0-1 L	2-3 L
FK Arsenal	0-0 D	2-1 W
FK Decic Tuzi	2-0 W	1-1 D
Sutjeska Niksic	0-4 L	0-1 L
OFK Mladost DG	3-0 W	4-1 W
FK Jezero	1-1 D	3-3 D
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Bokelj

DDLWDWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
28/10	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
23/10	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
19/10	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-4	5	4	L
20/09	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	3-0	3-0	2	2	W
15/09	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
10/09	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
03/09	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
30/08	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
23/08	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

FK Mornar Bar

DWLLDDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
27/10	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	2-3	10	0	L
22/10	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	4-1	4	3	W
17/10	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	11	4	W
08/10	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	3-3	4	7	D
20/09	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
14/09	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
08/09	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
03/09	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
29/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	3	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Bokelj vs FK Mornar Bar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Mornar Bar win (40%). Probabilities: FK Bokelj 29%, draw 31%, FK Mornar Bar 40%.

How many goals are expected in FK Bokelj vs FK Mornar Bar?

The model expects 1.96 goals (FK Bokelj 0.87 · FK Mornar Bar 1.09), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Bokelj vs FK Mornar Bar?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.