Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: FK Arsenal vs FK Jezero

Team pages: FK Arsenal · FK Jezero

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

FK Arsenal1.3

FK Jezero1.51

1X2

31% 28% 41%

FK Arsenal Draw FK Jezero

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Arsenal 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLLDDL

FK Jezero 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDLDDLDW

Head-to-head

FK Arsenal 0–2–4 FK Jezero (6 last)

FK Jezero5-2FK Arsenal
FK Jezero0-0FK Arsenal
FK Arsenal1-2FK Jezero
FK Arsenal1-3FK Jezero
FK Jezero2-0FK Arsenal
FK Arsenal2-2FK Jezero

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Arsenal 1421 · FK Jezero 1515

	FK Arsenal	Draw	FK Jezero
Our model	31%	27%	41%
Market	31%	28%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Jezero (rating 1421 vs 1515).
H2H favours FK Jezero: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Arsenal	FK Jezero
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.9	0.9 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.20

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 00:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.78 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.16
2	2.60 → 2.40▼	Pinn 2.53

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:51 +29’	2.45	3.10	2.60
13:07 +11’	2.50▲	3.10	2.50▼
15:43 +10’	2.90▲	3.20▲	2.20▼
00:50 +4’	2.63▼	3.10▼	2.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:20 +1’	3.17	3.05	2.17
13:09 +9’	3.12▼	3.11▲	2.26▲
18:59 +68’	2.75▼	3.11	2.50▲
11:01 +13’	2.78▲	3.16▲	2.53▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Arsenal 0–2–4 FK Jezero

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	5-2 HT 2-2	FK Arsenal
02/05/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Arsenal
07/03/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Jezero
05/02/26 Europe Friendlies	FK Arsenal	1-3 HT 0-2	FK Jezero
02/11/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Arsenal
30/08/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	2-2 HT 2-1	FK Jezero

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Buducnost Podgorica	14	7	4	3	19	12	25
2	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	14	7	3	4	24	18	24
3	FK Mornar Bar	15	6	6	3	21	15	24
4	Sutjeska Niksic	14	6	5	3	19	10	23
5	FK Bokelj	14	5	4	5	10	11	19
6	FK Decic Tuzi	13	5	3	5	12	11	18
7	OFK Petrovac	13	3	6	4	12	13	15
8	FK Jezero	14	3	6	5	16	22	15
9	OFK Mladost DG	14	3	3	8	11	23	12
10	FK Arsenal	13	1	6	6	10	19	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Arsenal	FK Jezero
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	1-3 L	1-4 L
FK Bokelj	0-0 D	1-1 D
Buducnost Podgorica	3-3 D	0-3 L
FK Mornar Bar	1-2 L	3-3 D
Sutjeska Niksic	0-2 L	2-2 D
OFK Petrovac	2-1 W	1-2 L
OFK Mladost DG	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	0 W 4 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Arsenal

DLLLWLLDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	1-3	3	1	L
28/10	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
22/10	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	3-3	5	3	D
17/10	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
19/09	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
14/09	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
10/09	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
05/09	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	2-5	0	4	L
30/08	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	8	7	L
23/08	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

FK Jezero

LWLDLDDLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
29/10	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
23/10	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
18/10	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
08/10	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	3-3	7	7	D
20/09	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-4	3	5	L
15/09	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
10/09	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
05/09	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	5-2	4	4	W
30/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	0	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Arsenal vs FK Jezero?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Jezero win (41%). Probabilities: FK Arsenal 31%, draw 28%, FK Jezero 41%.

How many goals are expected in FK Arsenal vs FK Jezero?

The model expects 2.81 goals (FK Arsenal 1.3 · FK Jezero 1.51), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Arsenal vs FK Jezero?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.