Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 01/11, 17:00

Prediction: FK Mornar Bar vs OFK Petrovac

Team pages: FK Mornar Bar · OFK Petrovac

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

FK Mornar Bar1.47

OFK Petrovac1.06

1X2

45% 29% 26%

FK Mornar Bar Draw OFK Petrovac

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Mornar Bar 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLDDWWL

OFK Petrovac 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDDLLLWW

Head-to-head

FK Mornar Bar 2–4–0 OFK Petrovac (6 last)

OFK Petrovac1-1FK Mornar Bar
FK Mornar Bar0-0OFK Petrovac
FK Mornar Bar1-1OFK Petrovac
OFK Petrovac0-2FK Mornar Bar
FK Mornar Bar3-1OFK Petrovac
OFK Petrovac1-1FK Mornar Bar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Mornar Bar 1562 · OFK Petrovac 1477

	FK Mornar Bar	Draw	OFK Petrovac
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Mornar Bar (rating 1562 vs 1477).
H2H favours FK Mornar Bar: 2-4-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Mornar Bar	OFK Petrovac
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.1	2.7 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.08
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.69 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +7’	2.00	3.10	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:03 +27’	2.07	3.03	3.68
14:26 +11’	2.08▲	3.01▼	3.69▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Mornar Bar 2–4–0 OFK Petrovac

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Petrovac	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Mornar Bar
01/07/26 Europe Friendlies	FK Mornar Bar	0-0 HT 0-0	OFK Petrovac
20/05/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Mornar Bar	1-1 HT 0-0	OFK Petrovac
21/03/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Petrovac	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Mornar Bar
30/11/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Mornar Bar	3-1 HT 0-1	OFK Petrovac
21/09/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Petrovac	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Mornar Bar

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Buducnost Podgorica	13	6	4	3	18	12	22
2	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	13	6	3	4	21	17	21
3	Sutjeska Niksic	13	5	5	3	18	10	20
4	FK Mornar Bar	13	5	5	3	20	15	20
5	FK Bokelj	12	5	4	3	10	9	19
6	FK Decic Tuzi	12	5	3	4	12	10	18
7	OFK Petrovac	12	3	5	4	12	13	14
8	FK Jezero	13	2	6	5	15	22	12
9	OFK Mladost DG	13	3	3	7	11	22	12
10	FK Arsenal	12	1	6	5	9	16	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Mornar Bar	OFK Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica	2-3 L	1-4 L
OFK Mladost DG	4-1 W	1-0 W
FK Arsenal	2-1 W	1-2 L
FK Jezero	3-3 D	2-1 W
FK Decic Tuzi	1-1 D	1-1 D
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	0-1 L	2-3 L
Sutjeska Niksic	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Mornar Bar (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Mornar Bar

WDWLLDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	2-3	10	0	L
22/10	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	4-1	4	3	W
17/10	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	11	4	W
08/10	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	3-3	4	7	D
20/09	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
14/09	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
08/09	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
03/09	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
29/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
21/08	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	2-0	2-1	9	5	W

OFK Petrovac

WDDDDLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
23/10	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
19/10	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-2	2-3	5	6	L
18/09	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-4	5	5	L
14/09	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	8	6	L
09/09	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
04/09	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
29/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
22/08	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
16/08	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	3-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Mornar Bar vs OFK Petrovac?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Mornar Bar win (45%). Probabilities: FK Mornar Bar 45%, draw 29%, OFK Petrovac 26%.

How many goals are expected in FK Mornar Bar vs OFK Petrovac?

The model expects 2.53 goals (FK Mornar Bar 1.47 · OFK Petrovac 1.06), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Mornar Bar vs OFK Petrovac?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.