Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 03/11, 13:00

Prediction: Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj vs FK Arsenal

Team pages: Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj · FK Arsenal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj1.72

FK Arsenal0.92

1X2

55% 25% 19%

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Draw FK Arsenal

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWDWDL

FK Arsenal 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDDLLLWLDD

Head-to-head

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 2–1–3 FK Arsenal (6 last)

FK Arsenal1-2Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj1-2FK Arsenal
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj4-1FK Arsenal
FK Arsenal2-1Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj0-2FK Arsenal
FK Arsenal0-0Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 1504 · FK Arsenal 1462

	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	Draw	FK Arsenal
Our model	55%	26%	19%
Market	56%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj (rating 1504 vs 1462).
H2H favours FK Arsenal: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	FK Arsenal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	2.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.60

24.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.64
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.68
2	4.60 → 4.60	Pinn 5.27 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:37 +27’	1.61	3.60	4.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:00 +4’	1.63	3.62	5.14
11:58 +3’	1.64▲	3.68▲	5.27▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 2–1–3 FK Arsenal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	1-2 HT 1-1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
27/07/25 Europe Friendlies	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	1-2 HT 1-0	FK Arsenal
18/05/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	4-1 HT 3-0	FK Arsenal
29/03/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	2-1 HT 1-0	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
24/11/24 Montenegro Prva Liga	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Arsenal
22/09/24 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	0-0 HT 0-0	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Buducnost Podgorica	14	7	4	3	19	12	25
2	Sutjeska Niksic	14	6	5	3	19	10	23
3	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	13	6	3	4	21	17	21
4	FK Mornar Bar	14	5	6	3	20	15	21
5	FK Bokelj	13	5	4	4	10	10	19
6	FK Decic Tuzi	12	5	3	4	12	10	18
7	OFK Petrovac	13	3	6	4	12	13	15
8	FK Jezero	13	2	6	5	15	22	12
9	OFK Mladost DG	14	3	3	8	11	23	12
10	FK Arsenal	12	1	6	5	9	16	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	FK Arsenal
OFK Petrovac	3-2 W	2-1 W
OFK Mladost DG	2-2 D	0-1 L
FK Jezero	4-1 W	2-5 L
FK Mornar Bar	1-0 W	1-2 L
FK Bokelj	1-2 L	0-0 D
Buducnost Podgorica	2-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

LWWLWWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
24/10	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/10	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	2-1	3-2	6	6	W
08/10	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
20/09	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	4-1	5	5	W
14/09	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
10/09	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
05/09	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
30/08	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
23/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-3	3	5	L

FK Arsenal

DDDLLLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
22/10	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	3-3	5	3	D
17/10	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
14/09	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
10/09	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
05/09	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	2-5	0	4	L
30/08	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	8	7	L
23/08	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
16/08	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
07/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj vs FK Arsenal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj win (55%). Probabilities: Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 55%, draw 25%, FK Arsenal 19%.

How many goals are expected in Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj vs FK Arsenal?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 1.72 · FK Arsenal 0.92), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj vs FK Arsenal?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.