Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 19/10, 15:00

Prediction: OFK Petrovac vs Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Team pages: OFK Petrovac · Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

OFK Petrovac1.22

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj1.04

1X2

39% 30% 30%

OFK Petrovac Draw Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

OFK Petrovac 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWDDDDLL

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLWWLWWD

Head-to-head

OFK Petrovac 3–2–1 Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj (6 last)

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj0-0OFK Petrovac
OFK Petrovac2-2Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj2-1OFK Petrovac
OFK Petrovac2-1Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj0-1OFK Petrovac
OFK Petrovac3-2Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · OFK Petrovac 1467 · Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 1514

	OFK Petrovac	Draw	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
Our model	39%	31%	30%
Market	40%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj (rating 1467 vs 1514).
H2H favours OFK Petrovac: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	OFK Petrovac	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.9	2.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.32
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.70 → 2.90▲	Pinn 3.17 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:07 +3’	2.40	3.00	2.70
18:01 +13’	2.25▼	3.00	2.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:26 +18’	2.32	2.89	3.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · OFK Petrovac 3–2–1 Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	0-0 HT 0-0	OFK Petrovac
26/11/25 Montenegro Cup	OFK Petrovac	2-2 HT 2-1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
12/04/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	2-1 HT 0-1	OFK Petrovac
22/02/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Petrovac	2-1 HT 0-1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
06/10/24 Montenegro Prva Liga	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	0-1 HT 0-0	OFK Petrovac
11/08/24 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Petrovac	3-2 HT 0-1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	10	5	2	3	17	12	17
2	FK Mornar Bar	11	4	5	2	14	11	17
3	FK Decic Tuzi	9	4	3	2	10	7	15
4	FK Bokelj	9	4	3	2	8	5	15
5	Buducnost Podgorica	10	4	3	3	11	7	15
6	Sutjeska Niksic	9	3	3	3	9	7	12
7	OFK Mladost DG	10	3	2	5	10	17	11
8	FK Jezero	10	2	4	4	12	18	10
9	OFK Petrovac	9	1	5	3	7	9	8
10	FK Arsenal	9	1	4	4	6	11	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	OFK Petrovac	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
Buducnost Podgorica	1-4 L	2-0 W
FK Arsenal	1-2 L	2-1 W
FK Decic Tuzi	1-1 D	0-3 L
Sutjeska Niksic	0-0 D	4-1 W
FK Mornar Bar	1-1 D	1-0 W
OFK Mladost DG	0-0 D	2-2 D
FK Jezero	3-0 W	4-1 W
FK Bokelj	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

OFK Petrovac

DLDWDDDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-4	5	5	L
14/09	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	8	6	L
09/09	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
04/09	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
29/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
22/08	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
16/08	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
09/08	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
01/08	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
24/05	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	4	8	D

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

LDWLWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
20/09	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	4-1	5	5	W
14/09	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
10/09	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
05/09	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
30/08	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
23/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-3	3	5	L
15/08	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	2-1	4-1	5	4	W
09/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
02/08	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in OFK Petrovac vs Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj?

According to our model, the most likely result is a OFK Petrovac win (39%). Probabilities: OFK Petrovac 39%, draw 30%, Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 30%.

How many goals are expected in OFK Petrovac vs Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj?

The model expects 2.26 goals (OFK Petrovac 1.22 · Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 1.04), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in OFK Petrovac vs Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.