Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 18/10, 14:00

Prediction: OFK Mladost DG vs FK Jezero

Team pages: OFK Mladost DG · FK Jezero

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

OFK Mladost DG1.75

FK Jezero1.21

1X2

48% 26% 25%

OFK Mladost DG Draw FK Jezero

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

OFK Mladost DG 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWWLLD

FK Jezero 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWLDLD

Head-to-head

OFK Mladost DG 1–1–4 FK Jezero (6 last)

FK Jezero1-0OFK Mladost DG
FK Jezero2-2OFK Mladost DG
OFK Mladost DG3-1FK Jezero
OFK Mladost DG0-2FK Jezero
FK Jezero1-0OFK Mladost DG
OFK Mladost DG0-1FK Jezero

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · OFK Mladost DG 1492 · FK Jezero 1502

	OFK Mladost DG	Draw	FK Jezero
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Jezero: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	OFK Mladost DG	FK Jezero
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	1.1 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.85▼	Pinn 1.92 ★
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.40
2	3.25 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.63

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:51 +5’	2.00	3.20	3.25
17:04 +6’	1.85▼	3.30▲	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:42 +40’	1.92	3.40	3.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · OFK Mladost DG 1–1–4 FK Jezero

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	1-0 HT 1-0	OFK Mladost DG
16/05/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	2-2 HT 0-2	OFK Mladost DG
15/03/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Mladost DG	3-1 HT 0-1	FK Jezero
26/11/25 Montenegro Cup	OFK Mladost DG	0-2 HT 0-2	FK Jezero
22/11/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	1-0 HT 0-0	OFK Mladost DG
17/09/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Mladost DG	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Jezero

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	10	5	2	3	17	12	17
2	FK Decic Tuzi	9	4	3	2	10	7	15
3	FK Bokelj	9	4	3	2	8	5	15
4	Buducnost Podgorica	10	4	3	3	11	7	15
5	FK Mornar Bar	10	3	5	2	12	10	14
6	Sutjeska Niksic	9	3	3	3	9	7	12
7	OFK Mladost DG	10	3	2	5	10	17	11
8	FK Jezero	10	2	4	4	12	18	10
9	OFK Petrovac	9	1	5	3	7	9	8
10	FK Arsenal	8	1	4	3	5	9	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	OFK Mladost DG	FK Jezero
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	2-2 D	1-4 L
FK Bokelj	0-3 L	1-1 D
Buducnost Podgorica	0-2 L	0-3 L
FK Arsenal	1-0 W	5-2 W
FK Decic Tuzi	2-0 W	1-2 L
Sutjeska Niksic	1-5 L	0-0 D
OFK Petrovac	0-0 D	0-3 L
FK Mornar Bar	2-3 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

OFK Mladost DG

WLLDLWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
20/09	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-3	0-3	8	2	L
14/09	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
10/09	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
05/09	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
28/08	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-2	1-5	6	3	L
22/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
16/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	2-3	10	2	L
09/08	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
02/08	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	3	5	W

FK Jezero

DWLDLWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	3-3	7	7	D
20/09	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-4	3	5	L
15/09	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
10/09	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
05/09	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	5-2	4	4	W
30/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	0	3	L
22/08	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
16/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-3	3	5	L
09/08	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
02/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in OFK Mladost DG vs FK Jezero?

According to our model, the most likely result is a OFK Mladost DG win (48%). Probabilities: OFK Mladost DG 48%, draw 26%, FK Jezero 25%.

How many goals are expected in OFK Mladost DG vs FK Jezero?

The model expects 2.96 goals (OFK Mladost DG 1.75 · FK Jezero 1.21), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in OFK Mladost DG vs FK Jezero?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.