Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 05/09, 20:00

Prediction: FK Jezero vs FK Arsenal

Team pages: FK Jezero · FK Arsenal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

FK Jezero1.2

FK Arsenal1

1X2

40% 31% 30%

FK Jezero Draw FK Arsenal

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Jezero 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLLDWLDL

FK Arsenal 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWLDDDDL

Head-to-head

FK Jezero 3–3–0 FK Arsenal (6 last)

FK Jezero0-0FK Arsenal
FK Arsenal1-2FK Jezero
FK Arsenal1-3FK Jezero
FK Jezero2-0FK Arsenal
FK Arsenal2-2FK Jezero
FK Arsenal0-0FK Jezero

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Jezero 1504 · FK Arsenal 1435

	FK Jezero	Draw	FK Arsenal
Our model	39%	32%	29%
Market	40%	30%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Jezero (rating 1504 vs 1435).
H2H favours FK Jezero: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Jezero	FK Arsenal
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.4	0.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3	2.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 00:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.37 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.25 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.11

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:15 +7’	2.15	3.00	3.25
16:37 +19’	2.15	3.00	3.20▼
00:52 +6’	2.25▲	3.00	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:55 +1’	2.32	2.86	3.22
20:34 +3’	2.37▲	2.87▲	3.11▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Jezero 3–3–0 FK Arsenal

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Arsenal
07/03/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Jezero
05/02/26 Europe Friendlies	FK Arsenal	1-3 HT 0-2	FK Jezero
02/11/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Arsenal
30/08/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	2-2 HT 2-1	FK Jezero
24/05/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Jezero

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Decic Tuzi	5	4	1	0	8	1	13
2	FK Mornar Bar	6	3	3	0	8	4	12
3	FK Bokelj	6	2	2	2	2	3	8
4	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	5	2	1	2	7	7	7
5	OFK Petrovac	5	1	3	1	4	2	6
6	Buducnost Podgorica	5	1	2	2	2	4	5
7	FK Jezero	5	1	2	2	2	5	5
8	Sutjeska Niksic	5	1	1	3	6	7	4
9	FK Arsenal	5	0	4	1	1	2	4
10	OFK Mladost DG	5	1	1	3	5	10	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Jezero	FK Arsenal
FK Decic Tuzi	1-2 L	0-0 D
Sutjeska Niksic	0-0 D	1-1 D
OFK Mladost DG	1-0 W	1-4 L
FK Mornar Bar	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Jezero

DLDLLDWLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	0	3	L
22/08	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
16/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-3	3	5	L
09/08	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
02/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
20/05	FK Jedinstvo Bijelo Polje Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
16/05	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-2	2-2	1	5	D
10/05	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	5	1	L
02/05	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	6	D

FK Arsenal

DDLWLDDDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	8	7	L
23/08	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
16/08	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
07/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
02/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
24/05	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-3	1-4	3	5	L
20/05	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
16/05	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
09/05	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
02/05	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Jezero vs FK Arsenal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Jezero win (40%). Probabilities: FK Jezero 40%, draw 31%, FK Arsenal 30%.

How many goals are expected in FK Jezero vs FK Arsenal?

The model expects 2.21 goals (FK Jezero 1.2 · FK Arsenal 1), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Jezero vs FK Arsenal?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.