Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 10/09, 19:00

Prediction: FK Arsenal vs OFK Mladost DG

Team pages: FK Arsenal · OFK Mladost DG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

FK Arsenal1.21

OFK Mladost DG1.18

1X2

36% 30% 34%

FK Arsenal Draw OFK Mladost DG

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Arsenal 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLDDDDLL

OFK Mladost DG 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWWLLDLW

Head-to-head

FK Arsenal 3–1–2 OFK Mladost DG (6 last)

FK Arsenal1-0OFK Mladost DG
FK Arsenal1-4OFK Mladost DG
OFK Mladost DG1-2FK Arsenal
FK Arsenal0-0OFK Mladost DG
OFK Mladost DG2-0FK Arsenal
FK Arsenal3-1OFK Mladost DG

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Arsenal 1445 · OFK Mladost DG 1473

	FK Arsenal	Draw	OFK Mladost DG
Our model	36%	30%	34%
Market	36%	30%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Arsenal: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Arsenal	OFK Mladost DG
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.7	2.6 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.02
2	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 3.01 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:36 +12’	2.50	3.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:41 +10’	2.85	2.85	2.56
11:29 +16’	2.34▼	3.02▲	3.01▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Arsenal 3–1–2 OFK Mladost DG

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/07/26 Europe Friendlies	FK Arsenal	1-0 HT 0-0	OFK Mladost DG
24/05/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	1-4 HT 0-3	OFK Mladost DG
04/04/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Mladost DG	1-2 HT 0-0	FK Arsenal
06/12/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	0-0 HT 0-0	OFK Mladost DG
27/09/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Mladost DG	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Arsenal
18/05/24 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	3-1 HT 1-0	OFK Mladost DG

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Decic Tuzi	6	4	1	1	8	3	13
2	FK Mornar Bar	7	3	3	1	8	5	12
3	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	6	3	1	2	9	7	10
4	FK Bokelj	6	2	2	2	2	3	8
5	FK Jezero	6	2	2	2	7	7	8
6	Sutjeska Niksic	7	2	2	3	7	7	8
7	OFK Petrovac	6	1	4	1	4	2	7
8	OFK Mladost DG	6	2	1	3	7	10	7
9	Buducnost Podgorica	6	1	2	3	2	6	5
10	FK Arsenal	6	0	4	2	3	7	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Arsenal	OFK Mladost DG
FK Jezero	2-5 L	0-1 L
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	1-2 L	2-1 W
FK Mornar Bar	0-0 D	2-3 L
FK Decic Tuzi	0-0 D	2-0 W
Sutjeska Niksic	1-1 D	1-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: OFK Mladost DG (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Arsenal

DLWLDDDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	2-5	0	4	L
30/08	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	8	7	L
23/08	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
16/08	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
07/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
02/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
24/05	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-3	1-4	3	5	L
20/05	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
16/05	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
09/05	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

OFK Mladost DG

WDLWWLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
28/08	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-2	1-5	6	3	L
22/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
16/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	2-3	10	2	L
09/08	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
02/08	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
24/05	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	3-0	4-1	3	5	W
20/05	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
16/05	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	2-0	2-2	4	5	D
10/05	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Arsenal vs OFK Mladost DG?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Arsenal win (36%). Probabilities: FK Arsenal 36%, draw 30%, OFK Mladost DG 34%.

How many goals are expected in FK Arsenal vs OFK Mladost DG?

The model expects 2.39 goals (FK Arsenal 1.21 · OFK Mladost DG 1.18), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Arsenal vs OFK Mladost DG?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.