Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 14/09, 19:00

Prediction: OFK Petrovac vs FK Arsenal

Team pages: OFK Petrovac · FK Arsenal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

OFK Petrovac1.46

FK Arsenal0.75

1X2

53% 28% 18%

OFK Petrovac Draw FK Arsenal

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

OFK Petrovac 2-7-1 (W-D-L)

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FK Arsenal 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDDDDLLL

Head-to-head

OFK Petrovac 3–1–2 FK Arsenal (6 last)

FK Arsenal3-1OFK Petrovac
OFK Petrovac1-0FK Arsenal
FK Arsenal3-2OFK Petrovac
OFK Petrovac0-0FK Arsenal
OFK Petrovac2-1FK Arsenal
OFK Petrovac2-0FK Arsenal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · OFK Petrovac 1484 · FK Arsenal 1445

	OFK Petrovac	Draw	FK Arsenal
Our model	53%	29%	18%
Market	54%	28%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours OFK Petrovac: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	OFK Petrovac	FK Arsenal
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.5	2.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.25

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.67▲	Pinn 1.67
X	3.40 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.38
2	5.00 → 4.75▼	Pinn 5.46 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:12 +17’	1.60	3.40	5.00
13:57 +7’	1.67▲	3.25▼	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:55 +33’	1.58	3.46	5.92
19:02 +61’	1.72▲	3.21▼	5.00▼
11:50 +13’	1.72▼	3.20▼	5.07▲
17:13 +51’	1.67▼	3.38▲	5.46▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · OFK Petrovac 3–1–2 FK Arsenal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	3-1 HT 1-0	OFK Petrovac
01/03/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Petrovac	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Arsenal
29/10/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	3-2 HT 2-1	OFK Petrovac
24/08/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Petrovac	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Arsenal
05/07/25 Europe Friendlies	OFK Petrovac	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Arsenal
04/05/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Petrovac	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Arsenal

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Decic Tuzi	8	4	2	2	9	6	14
2	FK Mornar Bar	7	3	3	1	8	5	12
3	FK Bokelj	7	3	2	2	4	4	11
4	Sutjeska Niksic	8	3	2	3	9	7	11
5	OFK Mladost DG	7	3	1	3	8	10	10
6	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	7	3	1	3	10	9	10
7	OFK Petrovac	7	1	5	1	5	3	8
8	Buducnost Podgorica	7	2	2	3	5	6	8
9	FK Jezero	7	2	2	3	7	10	8
10	FK Arsenal	7	0	4	3	3	8	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	OFK Petrovac	FK Arsenal
FK Decic Tuzi	1-1 D	0-0 D
FK Mornar Bar	1-1 D	0-0 D
OFK Mladost DG	0-0 D	0-1 L
FK Jezero	3-0 W	2-5 L
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	0-0 D	1-2 L
FK Bokelj	0-1 L	0-0 D
Buducnost Podgorica	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 5 D 1 L	0 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: OFK Petrovac (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

OFK Petrovac

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
04/09	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
29/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
22/08	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
16/08	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
09/08	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
01/08	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
24/05	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
20/05	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/05	FK Jedinstvo Bijelo Polje Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	7	7	W

FK Arsenal

LWLDDDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
05/09	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	2-5	0	4	L
30/08	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	8	7	L
23/08	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
16/08	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
07/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
02/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
24/05	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-3	1-4	3	5	L
20/05	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
16/05	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in OFK Petrovac vs FK Arsenal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a OFK Petrovac win (53%). Probabilities: OFK Petrovac 53%, draw 28%, FK Arsenal 18%.

How many goals are expected in OFK Petrovac vs FK Arsenal?

The model expects 2.21 goals (OFK Petrovac 1.46 · FK Arsenal 0.75), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in OFK Petrovac vs FK Arsenal?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.