Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 15/09, 19:00

Prediction: FK Jezero vs FK Bokelj

Team pages: FK Jezero · FK Bokelj

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

FK Jezero1.21

FK Bokelj1.04

1X2

39% 30% 31%

FK Jezero Draw FK Bokelj

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Jezero 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDWLDLWL

FK Bokelj 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLDDLW

Head-to-head

FK Jezero 1–3–2 FK Bokelj (6 last)

FK Bokelj0-2FK Jezero
FK Jezero1-1FK Bokelj
FK Jezero3-3FK Bokelj
FK Bokelj3-0FK Jezero
FK Jezero2-2FK Bokelj
FK Jezero0-2FK Bokelj

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Jezero 1486 · FK Bokelj 1551

	FK Jezero	Draw	FK Bokelj
Our model	39%	31%	30%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Bokelj (rating 1486 vs 1551).
H2H favours FK Bokelj: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Jezero	FK Bokelj
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	0.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2.7	2.4 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.48 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.06

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:03 +1’	2.25	3.00	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:55 +9’	2.48	2.77	3.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Jezero 1–3–2 FK Bokelj

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Bokelj	0-2 HT 0-2	FK Jezero
25/02/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Bokelj
22/10/25 Montenegro Cup	FK Jezero	3-3 HT 1-3	FK Bokelj
18/10/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Bokelj	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Jezero
17/08/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	2-2 HT 0-0	FK Bokelj
30/04/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	0-2 HT 0-2	FK Bokelj

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Decic Tuzi	8	4	2	2	9	6	14
2	FK Mornar Bar	7	3	3	1	8	5	12
3	FK Bokelj	7	3	2	2	4	4	11
4	Sutjeska Niksic	8	3	2	3	9	7	11
5	OFK Mladost DG	7	3	1	3	8	10	10
6	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	7	3	1	3	10	9	10
7	OFK Petrovac	7	1	5	1	5	3	8
8	Buducnost Podgorica	7	2	2	3	5	6	8
9	FK Jezero	7	2	2	3	7	10	8
10	FK Arsenal	7	0	4	3	3	8	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Jezero	FK Bokelj
Buducnost Podgorica	0-3 L	0-0 D
FK Arsenal	5-2 W	0-0 D
FK Decic Tuzi	1-2 L	0-1 L
Sutjeska Niksic	0-0 D	1-0 W
OFK Petrovac	0-3 L	1-0 W
FK Mornar Bar	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Bokelj (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Jezero

DLLDWLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
05/09	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	5-2	4	4	W
30/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	0	3	L
22/08	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
16/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-3	3	5	L
09/08	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
02/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
20/05	FK Jedinstvo Bijelo Polje Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
16/05	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-2	2-2	1	5	D

FK Bokelj

WLWWWLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
03/09	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
30/08	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
23/08	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
17/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
09/08	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
01/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
24/05	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	9	0	W
20/05	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	1-2	1-2	3	5	L
16/05	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Jezero vs FK Bokelj?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Jezero win (39%). Probabilities: FK Jezero 39%, draw 30%, FK Bokelj 31%.

How many goals are expected in FK Jezero vs FK Bokelj?

The model expects 2.25 goals (FK Jezero 1.21 · FK Bokelj 1.04), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Jezero vs FK Bokelj?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.