Football · England Championship · 22/08, 13:30
Prediction: Birmingham vs Bristol City
Team pages: Birmingham · Bristol City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Birmingham1.55
Bristol City0.94
1X2
Birmingham
Draw
Bristol City
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Birmingham
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Bristol City
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Birmingham
3–1–2
Bristol City
(6 last)
- Birmingham2-1Bristol City
- Bristol City1-0Birmingham
- Birmingham0-0Bristol City
- Bristol City0-2Birmingham
- Bristol City4-2Birmingham
- Birmingham3-0Bristol City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Birmingham 1596 · Bristol City 1484
| Birmingham | Draw | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Market | 51% | 26% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birmingham (rating 1596 vs 1484).
- H2H favours Birmingham: 3-1-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Birmingham | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.6 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.1 | 3.1 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.4 / 0 | 1.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Birmingham 3–1–2 Bristol City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 England Championship | Birmingham | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Bristol City |
| 25/10/25 England Championship | Bristol City | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Birmingham |
| 29/12/23 England Championship | Birmingham | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Bristol City |
| 19/08/23 England Championship | Bristol City | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Birmingham |
| 14/01/23 England Championship | Bristol City | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Birmingham |
| 08/10/22 England Championship | Birmingham | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Bristol City |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Wolverhampton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Sheff Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Stoke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Birmingham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 08/08 | Swansea England EFL Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 31/07 | Barcelona Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 25/07 | Crewe UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Northampton Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/07 | Burton Albion UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 15/07 | Solihull Moors UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 10/07 | Huddersfield UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Bristol City England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
Bristol City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Millwall England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/08 | Walsall England EFL Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Exeter UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 01/08 | Plymouth UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 29/07 | Newcastle Elite Club Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 29/07 | Forest Green UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Swindon UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 3-1 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 17/07 | Stockport UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Stoke England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Birmingham England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Birmingham vs Bristol City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Birmingham win (51%). Probabilities: Birmingham 51%, draw 27%, Bristol City 22%.
How many goals are expected in Birmingham vs Bristol City?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Birmingham 1.55 · Bristol City 0.94), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Bristol City?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.