Football · England Championship · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Bristol City vs Portsmouth

Team pages: Bristol City · Portsmouth

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Bristol City1.61

Portsmouth1.18

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Bristol City Draw Portsmouth

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Bristol City 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Portsmouth 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bristol City 4–1–1 Portsmouth (6 last)

Bristol City5-0Portsmouth
Portsmouth0-1Bristol City
Bristol City3-0Portsmouth
Portsmouth3-0Bristol City
Portsmouth0-1Bristol City
Bristol City3-3Portsmouth

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bristol City 1495 · Portsmouth 1491

	Bristol City	Draw	Portsmouth
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bristol City: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bristol City	Portsmouth
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.5	2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.16 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.47
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:45 +3’	2.00	3.25	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:47 +2’	2.16	3.47	3.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bristol City 4–1–1 Portsmouth

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/01/26 England Championship	Bristol City	5-0 HT 2-0	Portsmouth
29/11/25 England Championship	Portsmouth	0-1 HT 0-1	Bristol City
29/12/24 England Championship	Bristol City	3-0 HT 3-0	Portsmouth
07/12/24 England Championship	Portsmouth	3-0 HT 1-0	Bristol City
29/07/23 Club Friendly List	Portsmouth	0-1 HT 0-0	Bristol City
20/07/21 Club Friendly List	Bristol City	3-3 HT 1-2	Portsmouth

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Millwall	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	Charlton	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Wolverhampton	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
4	QPR	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
5	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
6	Watford	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Bolton	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Swansea	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
9	West Brom	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
10	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
11	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
12	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
13	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
15	Sheff Utd	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
16	Burnley	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
17	Derby	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
17	West Ham	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
19	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
20	Lincoln City	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
20	Preston	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
20	Stoke	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
23	Norwich	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
24	Southampton	2	1	0	1	4	3	-1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bristol City	Portsmouth
Birmingham	2-2 D	1-1 D
Stoke	2-0 W	3-1 W
Norwich	2-4 L	1-1 D
QPR	0-0 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bristol City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Birmingham England Championship	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/08	Millwall England Championship	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
02/05	Stoke England Championship	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
25/04	Birmingham England Championship	0-2	1-2	5	4	L
21/04	Southampton England Championship	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
18/04	Norwich England Championship	1-0	2-4	2	2	L
11/04	QPR England Championship	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
06/04	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-0	1-0	0	4	W
03/04	Charlton England Championship	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
21/03	West Brom England Championship	0-1	0-1	5	2	L

Portsmouth

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Lincoln City England Championship	2-1	3-1	3	4	W
15/08	QPR England Championship	1-3	1-3	6	1	L
02/05	Birmingham England Championship	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
25/04	Stoke England Championship	1-0	3-1	1	2	W
21/04	Coventry England Championship	0-1	1-5	1	1	L
18/04	Leicester England Championship	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
14/04	Ipswich England Championship	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
11/04	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
06/04	Oxford Utd England Championship	1-0	2-2	6	6	D
03/04	Norwich England Championship	0-1	1-1	6	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bristol City vs Portsmouth?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bristol City win (46%). Probabilities: Bristol City 46%, draw 28%, Portsmouth 26%.

How many goals are expected in Bristol City vs Portsmouth?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Bristol City 1.61 · Portsmouth 1.18), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Bristol City vs Portsmouth?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.