Football · England Championship · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Southampton vs Millwall

Team pages: Southampton · Millwall

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Southampton1.49

Millwall1.01

1X2

48% 28% 25%

Southampton Draw Millwall

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Southampton 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWDDLW

Millwall 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWDLWW

Head-to-head

Southampton 3–1–2 Millwall (6 last)

Southampton0-0Millwall
Millwall3-2Southampton
Millwall0-1Southampton
Southampton1-2Millwall
Millwall0-1Southampton
Millwall0-2Southampton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Southampton 1598 · Millwall 1544

	Southampton	Draw	Millwall
Our model	47%	29%	24%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southampton (rating 1598 vs 1544).
H2H favours Southampton: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Southampton	Millwall
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.4 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.6	3.9 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.02

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.58
2	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.11 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:45 +3’	1.90	3.40	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:47 +1’	1.88	3.58	4.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Southampton 3–1–2 Millwall

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/01/26 England Championship	Southampton	0-0 HT 0-0	Millwall
29/11/25 England Championship	Millwall	3-2 HT 0-0	Southampton
03/08/24 Elite Club Friendlies	Millwall	0-1 HT 0-0	Southampton
24/02/24 England Championship	Southampton	1-2 HT 1-2	Millwall
04/11/23 England Championship	Millwall	0-1 HT 0-0	Southampton
26/08/14 England EFL Cup	Millwall	0-2 HT 0-0	Southampton

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Millwall	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	Charlton	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Wolverhampton	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
4	QPR	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
5	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
6	Watford	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Bolton	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Swansea	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
9	West Brom	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
10	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
11	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
12	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
13	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
15	Sheff Utd	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
16	Burnley	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
17	Derby	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
17	West Ham	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
19	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
20	Lincoln City	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
20	Preston	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
20	Stoke	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
23	Norwich	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
24	Southampton	2	1	0	1	4	3	-1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Southampton	Millwall
Stoke	3-1 W	3-1 W
Bristol City	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Millwall (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Southampton

WWWDDWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Stoke England Championship	1-1	3-1	4	8	W
16/08	Watford England Championship	0-2	1-2	8	9	L
12/05	Middlesbrough England Championship	1-1	1-1	11	8	D
09/05	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
02/05	Preston England Championship	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
28/04	Ipswich England Championship	0-0	2-2	5	2	D
21/04	Bristol City England Championship	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
18/04	Swansea England Championship	0-1	2-1	12	5	W
14/04	Blackburn England Championship	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
11/04	Derby England Championship	0-1	2-1	6	3	W

Millwall

LDWWDWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Norwich England Championship	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
15/08	Bristol City England Championship	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
11/05	Hull England Championship	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
08/05	Hull England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
02/05	Oxford Utd England Championship	1-0	2-0	14	1	W
24/04	Leicester England Championship	0-0	1-1	12	4	D
21/04	Stoke England Championship	1-0	3-1	1	3	W
18/04	QPR England Championship	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
10/04	West Brom England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
06/04	Norwich England Championship	0-0	1-2	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Southampton vs Millwall?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Southampton win (48%). Probabilities: Southampton 48%, draw 28%, Millwall 25%.

How many goals are expected in Southampton vs Millwall?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Southampton 1.49 · Millwall 1.01), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Southampton vs Millwall?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.