Football · England Championship · 29/08, 13:30

Prediction: Derby vs Swansea

Team pages: Derby · Swansea

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Derby1.48

Swansea1.14

1X2

44% 28% 28%

Derby Draw Swansea

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Derby 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLWLLD

Swansea 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDDWLWDWWD

Head-to-head

Derby 2–1–3 Swansea (6 last)

Derby2-0Swansea
Swansea1-2Derby
Swansea1-0Derby
Derby1-2Swansea
Swansea2-1Derby
Derby0-0Swansea

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derby 1481 · Swansea 1506

	Derby	Draw	Swansea
Our model	44%	28%	28%
Market	44%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Swansea: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Derby	Swansea
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	1.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.26
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.51 ★
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:39 +2’	2.10	3.20	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +6’	2.26	3.51	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Derby 2–1–3 Swansea

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England Championship	Derby	2-0 HT 0-0	Swansea
25/11/25 England Championship	Swansea	1-2 HT 0-1	Derby
05/04/25 England Championship	Swansea	1-0 HT 0-0	Derby
27/11/24 England Championship	Derby	1-2 HT 0-2	Swansea
09/04/22 England Championship	Swansea	2-1 HT 2-1	Derby
02/10/21 England Championship	Derby	0-0 HT 0-0	Swansea

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Millwall	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	Charlton	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Wolverhampton	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
4	QPR	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
5	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
6	Watford	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Bolton	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Swansea	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
9	West Brom	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
10	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
11	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
12	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
13	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
15	Sheff Utd	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
16	Burnley	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
17	Derby	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
17	West Ham	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
19	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
20	Lincoln City	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
20	Preston	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
20	Stoke	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
23	Norwich	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
24	Southampton	2	1	0	1	4	3	-1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derby	Swansea
Charlton	1-2 L	3-1 W
Sheff Utd	1-2 L	0-0 D
QPR	3-2 W	2-1 W
Norwich	1-2 L	1-1 D
Southampton	1-2 L	1-2 L
Stoke	2-0 W	2-1 W
Coventry	2-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Swansea (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derby

WLWLWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Cardiff England Championship	1-2	2-2	7	6	D
15/08	Charlton England Championship	1-0	1-2	4	3	L
02/05	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-0	1-2	6	7	L
25/04	QPR England Championship	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
21/04	Norwich England Championship	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
18/04	Oxford Utd England Championship	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
11/04	Southampton England Championship	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
06/04	Stoke England Championship	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
03/04	Coventry England Championship	1-1	2-3	1	2	L
21/03	Birmingham England Championship	1-0	1-0	6	5	W

Swansea

LDDWLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
15/08	Stoke England Championship	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
02/05	Charlton England Championship	0-0	3-1	10	0	W
25/04	Norwich England Championship	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
21/04	QPR England Championship	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
18/04	Southampton England Championship	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
11/04	Leicester England Championship	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
06/04	Middlesbrough England Championship	2-1	2-2	2	6	D
03/04	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-1	3-3	2	2	D
21/03	Coventry England Championship	0-3	0-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derby vs Swansea?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Derby win (44%). Probabilities: Derby 44%, draw 28%, Swansea 28%.

How many goals are expected in Derby vs Swansea?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Derby 1.48 · Swansea 1.14), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Derby vs Swansea?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.