Football · England Championship · 29/08, 13:30
Prediction: Middlesbrough vs West Brom
Team pages: Middlesbrough · West Brom
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Middlesbrough1.75
West Brom0.95
1X2
Middlesbrough
Draw
West Brom
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Middlesbrough
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
West Brom
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Middlesbrough
5–1
West Brom
(6 last)
- West Brom2-3Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough2-1West Brom
- Middlesbrough2-0West Brom
- West Brom0-1Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough1-0West Brom
- West Brom4-2Middlesbrough
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Middlesbrough 1533 · West Brom 1611
| Middlesbrough | Draw | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours West Brom (rating 1533 vs 1611).
- H2H favours Middlesbrough: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Middlesbrough | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.9 | 2.4 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Middlesbrough 5–0–1 West Brom
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/26 England Championship | West Brom | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Middlesbrough |
| 19/09/25 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 2-1 HT 1-0 | West Brom |
| 21/01/25 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 2-0 HT 1-0 | West Brom |
| 01/10/24 England Championship | West Brom | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Middlesbrough |
| 23/12/23 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 1-0 HT 1-0 | West Brom |
| 26/08/23 England Championship | West Brom | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Middlesbrough |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Millwall | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Charlton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | QPR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Blackburn | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Watford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Bolton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Swansea | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Middlesbrough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 13 | Birmingham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 | Sheff Utd | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | Burnley | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Derby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 17 | West Ham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 19 | Bristol City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 | Preston | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 | Norwich | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Middlesbrough | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Hull | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Wrexham | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Watford | 5-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Sheff Wed | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Ipswich | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 3 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Middlesbrough
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Blackburn England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Hull England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | Southampton England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 09/05 | Southampton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Wrexham England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 25/04 | Watford England Championship |
2-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 22/04 | Sheff Wed England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Ipswich England Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 14 | 4 | L |
West Brom
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Norwich England Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Sheff Wed England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Ipswich England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 21/04 | Watford England Championship |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Preston England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 10/04 | Millwall England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 06/04 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 03/04 | Wrexham England Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 21/03 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 14/03 | Hull England Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Middlesbrough vs West Brom?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Middlesbrough win (55%). Probabilities: Middlesbrough 55%, draw 26%, West Brom 19%.
How many goals are expected in Middlesbrough vs West Brom?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Middlesbrough 1.75 · West Brom 0.95), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs West Brom?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.